191
FXUS64 KSHV 041731
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
THE LOCAL AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY, WHICH IS PART OF A LARGE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A ~1018MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS ITS RIDGE INFLUENCE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FAVORING SUNNY SKIES OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION, DRIER AIR, AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAKING A RUN FOR THE 80 DEGREE MARK SOUTH OF I-30 AND
HOVERING IN THE MID 70S NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES LOW, MAKING FOR AN OVERALL VERY
PLEASANT EARLY MAY DAY.
KOVACIK
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT OUTDOOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY.
- WHEN ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY, DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFE-THREATENING HAZARD (SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL).
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS/RAIN TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
POST-FRONTAL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DEW POINTS BELOW 50 DEGREES ALLOWING
FOR MORE EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING THIS WEEKEND (HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS COMING UP FROM LOWS
IN THE 40S). THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE
LAST MOMENT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR THE SEASON. /16/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ALOFT, THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
DUE TO A GRADUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHIFTING A TROUGH
ACROSS TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 3-5
INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF WET SOILS. IF SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ON TUESDAY, TREES WITH WATERLOGGED ROOT
SYSTEMS MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN OVER. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
FOR THE 04/18Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAIL AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 82 63 74 / 0 0 40 90
MLU 52 81 60 75 / 0 0 20 90
DEQ 47 78 55 68 / 0 0 20 90
TXK 51 81 59 71 / 0 0 30 90
ELD 48 81 56 72 / 0 0 20 90
TYR 54 80 63 74 / 0 20 60 100
GGG 52 80 60 73 / 0 10 50 100
LFK 55 82 64 78 / 0 20 60 100
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33
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