259
FXUS64 KSHV 050259
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ANOTHER NICE EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR MOST OF US WITH SOME FRESH CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER I-20 IN E TX. WE SHOULD DROP OFF ANOTHER TEN DEGREES
OR SO WITH WINDS ALREADY CALM AND DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE 40S. SO
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE RESENT THE ZONES TO
CLEAN UP SOME EVENING WORDING. /24/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES AN OMEGA BLOCK IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS CLOSED LOWS REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
DESERT SW AND OH VALLEYS, WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOCATED
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. BLOCKING PATTERNS
ARE OFTEN STUBBORN TO BREAK DOWN AND RESULT IN STAGNANT
CONDITIONS UNDER THE AREA THEY AFFECT, WHICH WILL CREATE FORECAST
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MEANWHILE, IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH ITS RIDGE INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY TO GULF COAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THIS FEATURE'S EAST, CORRESPONDING
TO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW ALREADY MENTIONED.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT AND QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND
THIS EVENING GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NW FLOW
ALOFT AS THE FOUR STATE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND OH
VALLEY CLOSED LOW PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THE FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET, YIELDING CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-30 AND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
ONE LAST QUIET WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS THE LOCAL AREA
BEGINS TO PREP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE
FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER BETTER INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE
PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON AT THE
SURFACE, BUT SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A POTENT VORT
MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE DESERT SW CLOSED LOW AND EJECT INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX BY THE EVENING HOURS AS GULF MOISTURE
INCREASES IN TANDEM WITH SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE.
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS "FIRST WAVE" OF MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY OR PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FLOODING, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER IN THE LOW 60S,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD.
KOVACIK
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE FOUR STATE REGION, EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY, WHILE THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND GREAT LAKES REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS W TX AND A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM IT SE TOWARDS THE LA COAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION WHERE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING, AND
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST. THE NORTHERN MEXICO VORT MAX WILL
EJECT E/NE INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING
THE CLOSED LOW TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL HELP
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE WHILE ALSO DRAGGING THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE HERE, EXPECT THIS SETUP TO GENERATE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS WILL SURELY POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, URBAN FLOODING,
AND RIVER FLOODING GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM THE
PREVIOUS WEEK. THIS IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE DAY 3 WPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WHICH SUGGESTS A MODERATE THREAT
ACROSS THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF MOISTURE COULD SET UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS HAVE NOT SEEN QUITE
AS MUCH RAINFALL AS LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX AND THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
REGARDLESS, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN
AS A WHOLE RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES CURRENTLY WHICH IS GOING TO
CREATE FLOODING CONCERNS. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SEEMS HARD TO COME BY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF EAST TX WHERE BETTER FORCING ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER EXISTING
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. ALL THAT SAID, AT
THE VERY LEAST DO EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OVERALL
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION. OF THE THREATS ON TUESDAY, HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY AT THE FOREFRONT.
THE AXIS OF HEAVY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S/SE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH RESIDUAL POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN POSSIBLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE GRADUALLY
EASED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ATTENTION TURNING MORE TO RIVER
FLOODING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE OF CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY, GIVEN ITS BROAD EXTENT, AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH SOME BREAKS FOR SUN FINALLY GREETING THE AREA. WHILE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE WELCOMED WITH OPEN
ARMS, IT IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ENOUGH TO REALLY
EXACERBATE THE SITUATION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CARRY THROUGH THE THURS-SAT TIMEFRAME
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED WITHIN A SLOWLY DEVELOPING BROADER SCALE AREA OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. IT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY, AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WITHIN AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST LOWER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE TO HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SAME STORY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW ACTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OR
NEARER TO THE GULF COAST, CARRYING A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IT
AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. THE TRICKY PART ABOUT THE
WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LIKELY STALL OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE LA/MS COAST, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTED BY THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CAN BE SEEN QUITE WELL IN THE WPC CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SOLUTIONS. THIS COULD MAKE FOR ENOUGH WRAP- AROUND
MOISTURE TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF THE TX/LA BORDER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 05/00Z TAF PERIOD. AREAS
OF THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL E ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER ERN NM/FAR W TX, WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN CIGS BY/AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. A WEAK CU
FIELD MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AR/NE LA BY LATE
MORNING, AROUND A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL WOBBLE OVER THE OH VALLEY.
SOME LOW AC THAT HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD NE INTO THE SW SECTIONS
OF E TX BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY, BEFORE ADVANCING FARTHER
NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF E TX/WRN LA BY AND AFTER THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ESE 4-8KTS
AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 81 63 72 / 0 0 30 100
MLU 52 80 60 74 / 0 0 20 80
DEQ 47 78 56 69 / 0 0 10 90
TXK 51 80 60 71 / 0 0 20 90
ELD 48 80 56 71 / 0 0 10 80
TYR 55 78 62 72 / 0 10 50 100
GGG 52 80 61 72 / 0 10 50 100
LFK 55 81 64 76 / 0 20 60 100
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...15
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