162
FXUS64 KSHV 050944
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
444 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN RETURNS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS,
CONTINUING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
- DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARD FROM HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY (SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY AS WELL).
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS/RAIN TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN IN EARNEST TODAY AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WEST TEXAS AND GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN US. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PWAT VALUES REACH
2 INCHES (APPROACHING 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN EAST TEXAS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE DAMAGING AND LARGE HAIL. WITH ANY
DAMAGING WINDS, TREES WITH WATERLOGGED ROOT SYSTEMS MAY BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN OVER. AN AREAWIDE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (80S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY). /16/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
WRAP-AROUND TROUGHING, IN COMBINATION WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY (ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES) ON TOP
OF WET SOILS THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
FOR THE 05/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WE
MOVE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LOOK FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AROUND 8-12KFT AND EVENTUALLY SOME CU/STRATOCU TOWARD
THE END OF TAF PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD CONCLUDES, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AFTER 06/00Z ACROSS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE,
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE BETWEEN
5-10 KTS BY AROUND 05/15Z.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 62 72 66 / 0 30 100 90
MLU 79 60 75 64 / 0 10 90 100
DEQ 77 55 68 58 / 0 20 100 70
TXK 80 59 70 61 / 0 20 100 80
ELD 79 56 73 59 / 0 20 100 100
TYR 79 62 72 65 / 20 50 100 50
GGG 79 61 72 63 / 10 50 100 70
LFK 81 63 77 66 / 30 50 100 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...19
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