052
FXUS64 KSHV 060456
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE EXPANDING E THE EVENING POPS/WX NOW THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS LIFTED INTO S AR AND
NE LA WITH SKIES CLEARING NOW ALONG I-30. SO THE FOCUS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT BACK TO E TX AS THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY SPINS OVER THE
RIO GRANDE. THE PARENT LOW WILL TAKE MUCH OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MERELY CROSSING NEW MEXICO. OUR FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AROUND
DAYBREAK AS THE NEXT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH CONTINUED
FOCUS UNDER THE SW FLOW. /24/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A LEAD SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF A
WEAK OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE U.S. HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS TODAY. THE CONVECTION WAS
MUCH MORE ROBUST SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR, BUT IT STARTING TO ENTER OUR EAST TEXAS COUNTIES AT THE
TIME OF THIS AFD. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AS WE ARE STILL WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE'S BEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
ALOFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION, BUT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ELEVATED
CAPE DECREASES QUITE RAPIDLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND INTO ARKANSAS
AND LOUISIANA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LESS
OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CWA BUT ALSO GRADUALLY.
IF IT CAN PERSIST, IT PROBABLY WOULD NOT MOVE INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA UNTIL AROUND 00Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS NEXT TO THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THAT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY
SHARPEN OVER WEST TEXAS BRINGING A WARM FRONT RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS
THE CWA LIKELY STALLING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF I-20 BY LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF I-20 AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THIS
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IF THESE STORMS OCCUR, THEY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY
LIMITING INSTABILITY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION
MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR MIDDAY ALLOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO BUILD FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, HIGH PWAT VALUES SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, HIGH RAIN RATES, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD
EXTEND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND PLENTY OF ASCENT OVER THE REGION. THE PRECIP
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
CN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER EASTERN KANSAS BY
THURSDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY
SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A STEADY STREAM OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANY WELL-
DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF US, BUT LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD FALL TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MAY BE AS
HIGH AS 5 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHEST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DIVES TOWARDS THE GULF AND AWAY
FROM OUR AREA. WE'LL HAVE ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND
THE FRONT, DRIER AIR SHOULD FINALLY ARRIVE BRINGING AN END TO
THESE PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OZARKS.
CN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ALREADY SEEING SOME -SHRA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND
EVEN SOME ELEVATED -TSRA IN THE VCTS OF LFK BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
RATHER SCATTERED AND SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AT LEAST UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 18Z, WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE A LITTLE MORE VCTS COVERAGE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS SOUTH INCLUDING THE TXK TERMINAL BUT BETWEEN 18Z-00Z,
THIS IS WHERE THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR TERMINALS AND THUS, INTRODUCED TSRA ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH A MIXTURE OF LOW MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE BEYOND 00Z, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH IFR CEILINGS CONTINUING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS OR SO DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 75 67 83 / 20 100 90 30
MLU 60 76 64 80 / 10 90 100 50
DEQ 55 69 58 78 / 10 90 70 10
TXK 59 72 62 80 / 10 100 80 20
ELD 56 75 59 79 / 20 90 100 30
TYR 62 75 66 81 / 30 100 40 20
GGG 60 74 64 82 / 20 90 70 20
LFK 63 79 67 83 / 50 90 80 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...13
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