498
FXUS64 KSHV 060938
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
438 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARD FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN DEEP
EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PWAT
VALUES SURPASS 1.5 INCHES (APPROACHING 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR) THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
IN EAST TEXAS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
FURTHER SOUTH IN DEEP EAST TEXAS, SURFACE WINDS WILL GAIN A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT, BOOSTING TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA.
WITH ANY DAMAGING WINDS, TREES WITH WATERLOGGED ROOT SYSTEMS MAY
BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN OVER. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (80S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY).
/16/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WRAP-AROUND TROUGHING, IN COMBINATION WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. GIVEN WPC QPF
ESTIMATES, AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES) ON TOP OF WET SOILS. OVER TIME, THE
RUNOFF FROM THE STORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO
AREA RIVERS, PRODUCING LONGER-TERM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS SOMEWHAT OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS DEFLECTING REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AWAY FROM THE AREA. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ALREADY SEEING SOME -SHRA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND
EVEN SOME ELEVATED -TSRA IN THE VCTS OF LFK BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
RATHER SCATTERED AND SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AT LEAST UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 18Z, WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE A LITTLE MORE VCTS COVERAGE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS SOUTH INCLUDING THE TXK TERMINAL BUT BETWEEN 18Z-00Z,
THIS IS WHERE THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR TERMINALS AND THUS, INTRODUCED TSRA ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH A MIXTURE OF LOW MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE BEYOND 00Z, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH IFR CEILINGS CONTINUING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS OR SO DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 66 83 65 / 90 70 20 20
MLU 72 64 82 64 / 90 90 40 30
DEQ 69 59 78 58 / 90 70 10 20
TXK 70 62 80 61 / 100 70 10 20
ELD 71 60 81 61 / 90 90 20 20
TYR 71 64 81 63 / 100 40 10 20
GGG 71 63 81 62 / 100 50 20 20
LFK 74 66 84 64 / 90 60 30 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...13
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