205
FXUS64 KSHV 061507
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WITHIN THE LAST HALF HOUR, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SHV RESPONSIBLE ETX COUNTIES AS
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE
INITIATED. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
COMES IN THE FORM OF HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST ADVANCES NORTH INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A VOLATILE
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUPPORTIVE SBCAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS, WHERE A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS, DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS.
KNAPP
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARD FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN DEEP
EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PWAT
VALUES SURPASS 1.5 INCHES (APPROACHING 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR) THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
IN EAST TEXAS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
FURTHER SOUTH IN DEEP EAST TEXAS, SURFACE WINDS WILL GAIN A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT, BOOSTING TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA.
WITH ANY DAMAGING WINDS, TREES WITH WATERLOGGED ROOT SYSTEMS MAY
BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN OVER. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (80S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY).
/16/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WRAP-AROUND TROUGHING, IN COMBINATION WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. GIVEN WPC QPF
ESTIMATES, AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES) ON TOP OF WET SOILS. OVER TIME, THE
RUNOFF FROM THE STORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO
AREA RIVERS, PRODUCING LONGER-TERM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS SOMEWHAT OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS DEFLECTING REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AWAY FROM THE AREA. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
ALREADY SEEING SOME -SHRA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND
EVEN SOME ELEVATED -TSRA JUST SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR ACROSS N LA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS RATHER SCATTERED BUT HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR IT WITH
VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS THAT SHOULD HOLD US UNTIL THE BIGGER SHOW
TODAY WHERE TSRA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WENT
BACK TO VCTS ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING CONVECTIVE WEATHER AND HITTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD ALONG WITH LIFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE AND DECOUPLE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 66 83 65 / 90 70 20 20
MLU 72 64 82 64 / 90 90 40 30
DEQ 69 59 78 58 / 90 70 10 20
TXK 70 62 80 61 / 100 70 10 20
ELD 71 60 81 61 / 90 90 20 20
TYR 71 64 81 63 / 100 40 10 20
GGG 71 63 81 62 / 100 50 20 20
LFK 74 66 84 64 / 90 60 30 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...13
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