710
FXUS64 KSHV 240737
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
THINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD AROUND THE ARK-LA-TX TONIGHT, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE MAY
SEE SOME CLOUD COVER CREEPING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN SW MISSOURI AND NW ARKANSAS. BUT TRENDS
HAVE OVERALL BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST, SO NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING. /57/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS IN STORE AS LATE MAY
WEATHER OFTEN GOES AROUND HERE. THAT IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS SET UP WITH RIDGING TO OUR SW FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MUCH OF OF TEXAS. IN THIS PATTERN WE OFTEN
SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR, NOCTURNAL MCS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TYPICALLY RIDE
ALONG THE NW FLOW DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. GIVEN THIS PATTERN AND ANALYZING ALL THE VARIOUS HI-RES
GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WHERE AN OVERNIGHT
MCS COULD IMPACT OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WHILE WEAKENING IN AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION. THIS SCENARIO IS
COMPLICATED SLIGHTLY BY THE FACT THAT WE STILL HAVE A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND, LOW-END POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED FOR OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR EARLY
TO MID MORNING ON SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
LATER IN THE MORNING. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, CHANCES REMAIN
LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT THE QUESTION WITH A MARGINAL RISK DOWN
TO ROUGHLY THE I-30 CORRIDOR FOR TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN QUITE LOW TO NIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS A BIT MORE NORTH AND EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL HELP
TO PROPEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE 90S FOR
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHILE OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUD COVER
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION IMPACTING THOSE AREAS AS NW FLOW
WILL STILL BE ONGOING EVEN IF JUST SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FARTHER TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
ENDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ALSO
BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED.
/19/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
BY SUNDAY, THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND STILL RATHER HOT, CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER IN THE
DAY AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT,
EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE QUICKLY AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. IN DOING SO, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST AS
THE FRONT SLOWS ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
IN FACT, THE BOUNDARY MAY EVEN STALL OUT BRIEFLY INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE GAINING ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TO HELP USHER IT SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME.
IN THIS SCENARIO, THE THREATS OF BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER BOTH APPEAR PLAUSIBLE DURING THIS LATE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY TO MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS, WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
FOR THE 24/06Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SITES, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KLFK,
WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO SPREAD TO THE REMAINING
SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, RESULTING IN REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LINE
OF STORMS WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION AROUND THE
LUNCH HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. DECIDED TO INCLUDE
VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AS THESE SAME MODELS HAVE STRUGGLE WITH
THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE. SOME CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE STORMS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ACROSS THE PLAINS APPROACH
THE FOUR STATE REGION. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, HOLDING OFF ON ANY
FURTHER ACTIVATION MESSAGING AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 95 75 88 / 0 20 40 70
MLU 73 93 73 89 / 20 30 30 70
DEQ 68 90 67 78 / 20 20 60 80
TXK 73 93 71 83 / 10 20 50 80
ELD 69 92 69 84 / 10 30 50 80
TYR 75 93 73 86 / 0 10 40 70
GGG 73 93 72 86 / 0 10 40 70
LFK 75 94 75 92 / 10 10 20 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20
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