320
FXUS64 KSHV 241529
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316 THROUGH 3PM FOR
MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SW ARKANSAS AND MAY EVEN CLIP SOME OF
EXTREME NE TEXAS SO THE WATCH DOES INCLUDE THE TEXARKANA METRO
AREA ON BOTH SIDES OF THE STATE LINE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WHICH HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN PARTS OF NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY.
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR SEEM TO INDICATE A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND, BUT ADDITIONAL HEATING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION SO THAT IS
THE JUSTIFICATION FOR THE WATCH EXTENDING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME NEW OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL FARTHER DOWNSTREAM SO THE WATCH DOES EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE AR/LA STATE LINE.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE THE SEVERE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ALL UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
/19/
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
CLOSELY MONITORING ELEVATED, POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND A DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. GENERAL TREND IN THE RADAR
PRESENTATION CLOSER TO HOME IN OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN ONGOING ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS, THAT AS THEY MOVE EAST, GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THAT
BEING SAID, THE MORNING CAMS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SOME FORM
OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OR MCS WORKING INTO SE OKLAHOMA AND SW
ARKANSAS LATER THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY FALLING APART AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, EARLY AFTERNOON. IN TRUE NW
FLOW FASHION, HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE, LEADING TO
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND IMPACTS
LOCALLY.
FOR THE TIME BEING, ELECTED TO SIDE MORE WITH THE CAMS THAT
HAVE HANDLED THE EARLY MORNING OK/KS CONVECTION THE BEST. BUYING
THAT THESE CONTINUE THEIR STREAK OF SUCCESS, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FROM OTHER HI-RES MODELS THAT WERE SLOWER TO ADVERTISE ANY
MORNING CONVECTION, ADDED A CORRIDOR OF SCHC POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH CITING LOCALIZED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON, CLASHING WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FORM OF RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY FORCING DRIFTING SOUTH FROM THE DECAY OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION. WHILE SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE NAILED THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, THINKING IS THAT THEIR PRESENTATION OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE ON THE AMBITIOUS SIDE, WHILE OTHER HI-RES
OUTPUT SHOWS VERY LIMITED COVERAGE. THIS IS WHY ONLY SCHC POPS WERE
DRAWN UP. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, THE MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST
POPS. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH FOR POTENTIAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY LINKED TO THE MORNING CONVECTION, AND
SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON COVERAGE.
NONETHELESS, A WARM TO BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, IN THE LOW AND MID 90'S. WE WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENTATION WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH CONVECTION LIKELY RIDING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT, POPS ARE
MAINLY DRAWN UP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES TO START, WITH
SOME INCREASE IN PERCENTAGES DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW. THIS WILL INITIATE A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AM.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN COME MONDAY, WITH W/SW FLOW
BECOMING THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC DRIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, AND IN RETURN
WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY
THESE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PREVIOUS D4 SLIGHT HAS NOW
BECOME A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FA, AND
GIVEN THE PATTERN IN PLACE, IT IS LIKELY THAT FUTURE OUTLOOKS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE DAYS TO COME AS EACH DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT SOME
FORM OF WIND AND HAIL THREAT. LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THIS REGIME
HOWEVER REMAINS THE MAIN DELAY IN ANY LONG TERM CONFIDENCE.
WHAT CAN BE SAID THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, INCLUDING A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE 7 DAY QPF FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE, WITH STORM TOTALS NEARING 5" FOR SOME COMMUNITIES,
WITH MANY FALLING BETWEEN 3-5" OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED GIVEN DAILY RAIN CHANCES, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80'S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
FOR THE 24/12Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SITES, AS LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND TEMPO IN TSRA AT MANY OF
THE SITES. SOME CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE
STORMS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, MORE LOW STRATUS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES IN SE OKLAHOMA, SW ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NE TEXAS
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 76 95 75 / 20 0 20 40
MLU 93 73 93 73 / 20 20 30 30
DEQ 85 68 90 67 / 70 20 20 60
TXK 92 73 93 71 / 40 10 20 50
ELD 90 69 92 69 / 40 10 30 50
TYR 93 75 93 73 / 10 0 10 40
GGG 93 73 93 72 / 20 0 10 40
LFK 95 75 94 75 / 20 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20
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