971
FXUS64 KSHV 250235
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND THE ARK-LA-TX THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA KEPT THESE AREAS COOLER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH, I ADJUSTED TONIGHT'S MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM DE QUEEN TO
EL DORADO TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE REGION WERE ABLE TO REACH FORECASTED HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ON TRACK THIS EVENING, SO NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE THERE. /57/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
AS LATE SPRING MCS SEASON GOES HERE IN OUR REGION, THIS MORNING'S
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED WELL UPSTREAM STILL MANAGED
TO HOLD TOGETHER WELL SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. IN FACT, IT'S
STILL PACKING QUITE A PUNCH AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS REMAIN
ACTIVE WHILE IT BEGINS TO ADVANCE JUST TO OUR EAST INTO THE DELTA
REGION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE, WE ARE STILL MONITORING
SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION NORTH OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK, BUT
MORE RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS FARTHER SE. WITH THAT SAID, PLAN TO LET THE
CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES EXPIRE
ON SCHEDULE AT 3 PM.
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE AS WE APPROACH SUNSET THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, RENEWED MCS
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OUR N/NW OVERNIGHT, BUT A SLIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION SHOULD HELP TO DEFLECT THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH. THEREFORE, EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY REMAINS ORIENTED, GENERALLY ALONG THE OUACHITAS EASTWARD.
MOVING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS OUR REGION AND SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TO JUST NORTH
OF OUR REGION. MUCH LIKE TODAY, WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL
OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM MCS AND
HOW THIS MAY IMPACT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR THE MOST
PART, DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVERALL DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD BUT INCREASING CHANCES WILL COME BY SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AS
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY EVEN
THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE LACKING. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL NORTH OF THE I-20, AND MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30
WHERE FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE GREATER.
/19/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
LOOKING AHEAD TO MEMORIAL DAY AND FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK, LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GAINS
SOME FORWARD MOMENTUM INTO MORE OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE FRONT MAY NOT
FULLY ADVANCE INTO OUR REGION UNTIL TUESDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THIS EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD, INCREASING THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO PIVOT EASTWARD AND FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER. WITH THAT SAID, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGHOUT THIS 7-DAY PERIOD FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MAY
RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE BEFORE
ALL OF THE CONVECTION FINALLY COMES TO AN END.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COULD BE THE SOURCE FOR
VCTS CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHERWISE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD ENDING 26/00Z. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AREAWIDE NEAR
DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR THEREAFTER. SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 10 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY ON SUNDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 95 75 91 / 0 20 40 70
MLU 73 94 73 89 / 10 30 40 70
DEQ 69 89 67 79 / 10 20 80 90
TXK 73 94 71 85 / 0 20 60 90
ELD 69 92 68 85 / 10 30 60 90
TYR 76 92 74 88 / 0 20 40 80
GGG 74 93 72 89 / 0 20 40 80
LFK 76 95 75 93 / 0 20 20 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...05
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