733
FXUS64 KSHV 251656
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TX LATE THIS MORNING, PERHAPS AN EARLY INDICATION OF A MORE
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER TO MID 90S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
IT WILL FEEL INCREASINGLY OPPRESSIVE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES SURGE
INTO THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. AS FOR THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CONVECTION LATER TODAY, A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE OZARKS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE EAST THAN SOUTH THIS MORNING BUT WE WILL
BE WATCHING FOR SOME SOUTHWARD EXPANSION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD POSSIBLY BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FARTHER
SOUTH LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE INCREASING HEAT AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS, CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS IS MORE LIKELY AN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THREAT.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. FOR NOW, THE ONLY CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WAS
TO EXPAND POPS SOUTHWARD A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ALL UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
/19/
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BETWEEN I-20 AND I-30.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO DIFFUSE OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED STALLED BOUNDARY HANGING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA AND SW ARKANSAS. THIS, ALONG WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, WILL SUPPORT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD,
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS
W/SW QUASI-ZONAL ASCENT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE CWA INTO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, EARLY MONDAY AM.
BEFORE WE GET THERE THOUGH, THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IS ADVERTISED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA SE OKLAHOMA AND SW
ARKANSAS COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS
FALLS IN LINE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1 OUTLOOK,
HIGHLIGHTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 IN A SLIGHT RISK, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK DOWN TO NW LOUISIANA. SOME OF THE CAMS GO EVEN AS FAR
AS SUGGESTING THAT AHEAD OF THE LINEAR COMPLEX, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND NW LOUISIANA. WITH MULTIPLE OF THE HI-RES CAMS SUGGESTING THIS,
ELECTED TO DRAW UP SCHC POPS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY COULD INTERACT WITH SOME LINGERING
BOUNDARIES HANGING AROUND THE REGION. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO SIT IN THE LOW AND MID 90'S, LOCAL INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE A QUESTION. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS ISOLATED COVERAGE
AHEAD OF THE LINE, EXPECT FOR HIGHER POPS TO EMERGE ONCE THE MORNING
UPDATE IS ISSUED.
BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING, CONVECTIVE HI-RES MODELING ADVERTISES
THAT LOCAL CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECAY. THAT BEING SAID, TO THE
WEST, A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW 500MB FLOW WILL
QUICKLY HELP TO IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT, IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE.
EXPECTATION BASED ON THE VARIOUS CAM SOLUTIONS IS FOR THIS TO
CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF STORMS, POSSIBLE MCS, AND PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE DFW METROPLEX, WORKING INTO THE FA BEFORE SUNRISE EARLY
MONDAY AM. HI-RES TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE LINEAR COMPLEX WILL
APPROACH NW LOUISIANA AROUND SUNRISE, WITH POSSIBLE RE-FIRING OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINGERING MESO-BOUNDARY FROM THE PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS PATTERN AND THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON WHAT MAY
EVOLVE. AS A RESULT OF THIS CONVECTIVE SCENARIO, A SLIGHT RISK IS
PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND DEEP EAST TEXAS, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA VALID STARTING 12Z
MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHANGES COULD BE MADE TO THIS OUTLOOK.
REGARDLESS, IF TRENDS GO AS ADVERTISED, NOT ONLY WILL STRONG WIND
AND HAIL ACCOMPANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS BECOME A PROBLEM.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RAINFALL EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH MANY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80'S. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
FOR SOME LOWER 90'S MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES, BUT IF RAINFALL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, EXPECT FOR THESE
NUMBERS TO DECREASE SOME.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WHILE THE QUASI-ZONAL W/SW FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT, THE PASSING OF A "COOL FRONT" BOTH LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. ESSENTIALLY, THE EXTENDED PATTERN WILL REMAIN
IRRITATED, WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES KICKING EAST WITHIN THE FLOW.
IT WON'T BE UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK THAT A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND LOW
DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ASSIST IN DISRUPTING THE
PATTERN, AND INTRODUCE SOME SINKING AIR, AND A BRIEF STINT OF HIGH
PRESSURE BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE REOCCURRING
THEME OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES KICK
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN THE THEME WHEN IT
COMES TO QPF POTENTIAL THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW, STILL CALLING FOR 3-
5" OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS
AS DAILY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS THROUGH DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST
ARE IN PLACE.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
FOR THE 25/12Z TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. BUT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AS THE STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING, WITH SCATTERED CU AND
BROKEN CIRRUS TO FOLLOW. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS, BUT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE FOUR STATE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 75 89 72 / 20 50 70 70
MLU 92 71 89 71 / 40 40 70 60
DEQ 89 67 78 65 / 50 70 90 80
TXK 94 71 82 68 / 30 70 80 80
ELD 91 68 84 66 / 40 60 80 80
TYR 93 73 88 70 / 20 50 70 70
GGG 93 72 88 68 / 20 50 70 70
LFK 94 75 92 71 / 20 20 40 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20
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