580
FXUS64 KSHV 261626
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1126 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
BIG PUSH IS NEARLY THROUGH OUR CWA WITH THE MAIN LINE ANYWAY. 2
TO 4 INCHES WIDESPREAD IN IT'S WAKE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TODAY. WE
WILL HAVE A NICE BREAK BEHIND THE LINE THAT COULD LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FOR MANY OF US. THE HRRR IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH
FOR TONIGHT'S PUSH AND WE WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMING THE FLOOD WATCH
AREA ONCE THE 12Z HAS BEEN FULLY CONSIDERED. SKIES WILL BE THICK
WITH CLOUDS BEHIND THIS LINE WITH NEW ANVILS PERCOLATING ON THE SW
FLANK AND SW FLOW ALOFT. AND NOW WITH THE GROUND SOAKED, REALIZING
THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE A REACH, BUT AFTER THE HOT DAY
YESTERDAY, I DON'T THINK WE WILL HAVE MANY COMPLAINTS. HAPPY
MEMORIAL DAY TO ALL IN OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. /24/
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
AN ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AS TWO COMPLEXES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDERWAY. THE FIRST IS TIED TO A BOUNDARY THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY LINKED TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS DURING LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE COMPLEX AS WHOLE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE,
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO RE-FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY, WHICH
APPEARERS TO HAVE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER METRO.
MAIN CONCERN LINKED TO THIS BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING BOUNDARY, WITH STORMS BECOMING
BRIEFLY TALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF HAIL THREAT, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IF THE
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RE-FIRE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING CAUGHT UP IN THE DOMINATE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX UNFOLDING ACROSS THE DFW METRO. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, ULTIMATELY WORKING
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH THE POTENTIAL
THAT IT DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONCERN
WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING OVER AREAS WHERE TRAINING SHOWERS
ARE ONGOING DUE TO RE-FIRE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FROM
SUNDAY EVENING STORMS. AS A RESULT OF THIS, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS DRAWN UP A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, WHILE THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DRAWN UP AN EXPANSIVE SLIGHT RISK ERO
TO COMBAT THE LOCAL FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE FA THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY.
AS THIS COMPLEX EXITS THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX WHERE WE GO MOSTLY
RAIN AND SHOWERS FREE FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING WHAT UNFOLDS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SELECT HI-RES MODELS DEPICT WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER MCS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE W/SW FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME, GLOBAL GUIDANCE
DOES ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT WOULD
LIKELY BE THE DRIVING SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX TO MATERIALIZE.
THAT BEING SAID, SOME OF THE MORE EXPERIMENTAL HI-RES CAMS THAT HAVE
PERFORMED BETTER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MORE TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE
IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING MCS POTENTIAL. TO
COMBAT THIS, HAVE ELECTED TO DRAW UP A WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION OF
CHC POPS TO ADVERTISE SOME POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOLELY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
MORNING CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THIS CAN GET OUT
OF THE REGION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARMING WE SEE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MCS. FOR NOW, CALLING FOR MID TO UPPER 80'S. TEMPERATURES WON'T
CHANGE MUCH FOR TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80'S
ONCE AGAIN.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
WEST TO SOUTHWEST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO MID-
WEEK, WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SUPPORTING DAILY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. QPF THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD CALLS FOR
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 5" NOT RULED OUT. NEAR TO POTENTIALLY
JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGHS WILL LINGER AROUND THE LOW AND MID 80'S.
IT WON'T BE UNTIL LONG WAVE TROUGHING, LINKED TO AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE KICKING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST, THAT WE SEE A SWITCH UP
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. AS A RESULT, POPS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD (FOR NOW) ARE MINIMAL. THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE STILL DAYS OUT
FOR CONFIDENCE TO BE VERY HIGH.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
FOR THE 26/12Z TAF PERIOD...A MIX BAG OF REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES, AS A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE LINE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN IN WAKE OF
THE CONVECTION WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 72 86 71 / 90 70 40 20
MLU 86 72 85 71 / 90 60 50 30
DEQ 78 63 81 60 / 100 70 30 10
TXK 82 68 84 65 / 100 70 40 10
ELD 83 66 83 64 / 100 80 50 20
TYR 86 69 85 67 / 90 70 30 20
GGG 86 68 85 66 / 90 80 40 20
LFK 91 70 87 70 / 90 70 40 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20
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