274
FXUS64 KSHV 270230
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
HIRES MODELS HAVE RESOLVED A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE ONGOING MCS THAT IS COMING INTO MATURITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, THAT SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY HAS MATERIALIZED
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES NOW BEING POSTED ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX HAS STRUGGLED
TO RECOVER FROM EARLY PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THUS, STORMS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THAT BEING SAID, WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH ARKANSAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS WHERE IT LOOKS UNLIKELY THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
CANCELLATION BUT HELD OFF DUE INCOMING PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE A FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TONIGHT. /05/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THIS MORNING'S LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO CENTRAL MS
NOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS FROM DEEP EAST TX INTO NE LA.
WE RECEIVED A GOOD SOAKING OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR-STATE AREA WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES COMMON PLACE. THE AREA RIVERS HAVE JUMPED UP AND MORE
TO COME SO TO SPEAK IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WE CONTINUE OUR FLOOD
WATCH AS IS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 7AM ON TUESDAY.
RADAR IS ALREADY LINING UP THE NEXT POTENTIAL PUSH OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPROACHING CHEROKEE COUNTY, AND EXTENDING TO THE NW,
WELL WEST OF THE METROPLEX. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT INITIALIZE
WELL WITH CURRENT, BUT NOTES TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE GFS DOES A BETTER JOB OF
INITIATION THIS MID AFTERNOON, AND TAKES HEAVIER CONVICTION RIGHT
UNDER I-30 AND ALONG I-20 AND SOUTH. THE HRRR NEVER ESTABLISHES
ANY CONNECTIVITY AND SHOWS AN I-30 LIGHTER AMOUNT, AND LIKE THE
GFS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SO THAT IS
GOOD NEW FOR US, TO SPREAD MORE HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER I-20 THIS
TIME AROUND. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON THE HOW THE LOW LEVEL JET
UNFOLDS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WET PATTERN OVERNIGHT.
THIS SOUTHERN MOST PUSH CERTAINLY WARRANTS THE FLOOD WATCH AND
CONSIDERING OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF, OUR
I-30 COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE CURRENT WATCH UNTIL 7AM.
DEPENDING ON THE NEXT RUN LATE THIS EVENING, SOME OF THE LINGERING
ACTIVITY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF I-49 MAY WARRANT
SOME PARISHES TO BE EXTENDED IN WATCH TIME FOR WITH THIS LAST BIG
PUSH. THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN QPF SIGNAL FOR THE HEART OF
OUR AREA IN THE MORNING HOURS, ENDING AROUND LUNCHTIME. ONE THING
FOR SURE IS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE HAD A GREAT IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. THE WET SOIL TAKES LONGER TO HEAT UP AND
GUIDANCE TRENDS OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD INTO THE EARLY LONG TERM.
WE CAN EXPECT A LARGE RANGE OF 60S TONIGHT AND LIKEWISE, A WIDE
RANGE OF 80S FOR THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND WE WILL SEE SOME
LOCALES COMING IN UNDER THE LATE MAY AVERAGE EXPECTATION. /24/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE UPPER PATTERN REMAIN
LOCKED INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE PARENT LOW REPLACED LATER
THIS WEEK WITH A NEW CORE. THIS KEEPS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
TX AND LA FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. AS A RESULT, THE COOLER TEMPS FROM
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL LINGER ALL WEEK. UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S WILL ABOUND DURING MIDWEEK AND START BACK TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE, WE CAN EXPECT UPPER 80S
AND SOME LOWER 90S TO RETURN EARLY IN JUNE AS WE GET ON THE DRIER
SIDE OF LIGHT NW FLOW IN THE DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH SLOWLY WORKING
EASTWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER COMPACT UPPER LOW IN
THE NW FLOW, SLIDING SE OVER THE PLAINS. MUCH OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCOURED OUT AND TO OUR EAST, BUT NO DOUBT
WILL WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURN
AS THAT FEATURE EASES INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE. THE MODELS GO
ON TO KEEP THE INITIAL UPPER LOW CORE FILLING AND EXPANDING OVER
MS AND AL WITH CONVECTION LINGERING FOR US ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGING THAT USUALLY
FOLLOWS THE DEEP TROUGHS EXTENDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AROUND THE LINGERING GULF COASTAL UPPER LOW. SO
HEATING BACK TO AVERAGE IS LIKELY, ALONG WITH NEAR AVERAGE
RAINFALL CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE NEW MONTH, PER THE CPC 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO TRICKLE BACK IN FROM THE NORTH
ALONG WITH MORE RAIN COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT KTYR IN THE SHORT TERM. BUT ANOTHER MCS IS LIKELY TO
MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. I HAVE IMPACTS WRITTEN IN BEGINNING 27/03Z GIVE OR TAKE AN
HOUR DEPENDING ON ACTUAL SPEED OF THE COMPLEX COMPARED TO MODELS.
IMPACTS SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND 27/14Z, LEAVING
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO CLOSE THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO LIFR CONDITIONS
DURING HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 85 70 84 / 80 60 20 40
MLU 70 85 69 84 / 60 80 30 50
DEQ 62 80 61 81 / 60 30 10 10
TXK 65 82 66 82 / 70 50 10 20
ELD 64 82 64 82 / 70 70 20 30
TYR 68 84 68 83 / 80 40 20 40
GGG 66 84 67 83 / 80 50 20 40
LFK 69 86 70 85 / 60 60 30 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...57
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