172
FXUS64 KSHV 271135
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS LOCATED ACROSS OUR
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ZONES. THIS PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST ZONES BY
MID-MORNING. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT A STRONGER LINE OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS PRECIP
SHIELD. MOST OF THIS HAS STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR ZONES IN THE LCH
FORECAST AREA, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME OF THIS MAKING IT INTO
GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES BEFORE IT PUSHES EAST OF US. STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT THIS LINE HAS
HAD A HISTORY OF SOME BRIEF ROTATION AT TIMES. BEHIND THE
CONVECTION TODAY, EXPECT A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN, BUT A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
TODAY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRE AT 7 AM THIS MORNING.
WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DRY CONDITION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AREAWIDE. BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE RECENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, A CLOSED
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MIDWEST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING US DRY
CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
ON SUNDAY, AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
THE FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK,
AS UPPER RIDGING WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY/SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. /20/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, A CLOSED
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MIDWEST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING US DRY
CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
ON SUNDAY, AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
THE FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK,
AS UPPER RIDGING WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY/SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
HEAVIEST OF THE MORNING TSRA HAS EXITED THE AIRSPACE, WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHRA PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AIRSPACE, FROM
ELD TO MLU. WEAK REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF TXK,
BUT THESE SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, WITH
A SCT/BKN CU FIELD PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z. BETWEEN 28/00Z AND
28/04Z, HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHRA, MAYBE ONE OR TWO
INSTANCES OF TSRA. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ADD TSRA/VCTS TO SELECT TERMINALS, SO VCSH WAS HELD THROUGH THIS
PACKAGE. TERMINAL WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VRB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AT OR BELOW 5KT. AFTER 28/06Z, BKN COVERAGE BELOW 2KFT
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W/SW, AND EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 84 70 85 69 / 20 10 50 30
MLU 83 68 84 68 / 60 20 50 40
DEQ 80 62 82 63 / 20 10 20 20
TXK 81 67 84 67 / 20 10 30 30
ELD 81 64 83 64 / 40 10 40 40
TYR 83 69 82 68 / 20 10 50 20
GGG 83 68 83 67 / 20 10 50 30
LFK 86 70 84 69 / 20 20 70 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...53
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