341
FXUS64 KSHV 272004
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ROUND(S) OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK, STAYING NEAR-NORMAL (MID-TO-UPPER 80S) FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE
(LOWER 90S). /16/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING UNTIL SUNSET. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ULTIMATELY MAINTAINING FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG
ITS EDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /16/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE SEASONALLY PESKY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DISPLACED BY
RIDGING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO, UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL TRANSIT ITS PERIPHERY, DELIVERING A GLANCING
BLOW WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA ZONES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW
WEATHER PATTERN INTO MID-JUNE. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E
TX/N LA ALONG AND S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SW AR TERMINALS BEFORE EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR BY
22-00Z. ISOLATED -SHRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF'S
ATTM AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. WHILE CIRRUS CIGS SHOULD
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE WSW, AREAS OF LIFR
CIGS AND PATCHY FG SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING BY MID AND LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION THAT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS CNTRL AND SE TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO MUCH OF E TX/N LA
AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON,
MAINTAINING MVFR CIGS, REDUCED VSBYS, AND EXTREME TURBULENCE FOR
THE AREA TERMINALS IN/NEAR THE CONVECTION. VRB WINDS 5KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 85 69 86 / 0 50 50 50
MLU 68 84 68 85 / 20 50 50 70
DEQ 61 81 63 80 / 0 20 30 50
TXK 66 83 67 84 / 0 30 40 50
ELD 63 83 64 83 / 10 30 50 60
TYR 68 82 68 84 / 10 50 30 40
GGG 67 82 66 84 / 10 50 40 50
LFK 70 84 67 85 / 10 70 50 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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