065
FXUS64 KSHV 272323
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
623 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ROUND(S) OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK, STAYING NEAR-NORMAL (MID-TO-UPPER 80S) FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE
(LOWER 90S). /16/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING UNTIL SUNSET. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ULTIMATELY MAINTAINING FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG
ITS EDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /16/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE SEASONALLY PESKY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DISPLACED BY
RIDGING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO, UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL TRANSIT ITS PERIPHERY, DELIVERING A GLANCING
BLOW WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA ZONES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW
WEATHER PATTERN INTO MID-JUNE. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ALL REGIONAL SITES ARE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ALONG
PERIOD OF TUMULTUOUS WEATHER. CONDITIONS WILL STAY FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS NEAR CALM. I HAVE SEVERAL SITES DROPPING TO
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK IN ADDITION TO LOWERING
VISIBILITIES FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THESE IMPACTS
SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR IN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL
MIXING GETS GOING, RETURNING TO MVFR/VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE, SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
SOME CONVECTION AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-20 TOMORROW EVENING.
ASSUMING THINGS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH NEW DATA, SOME VCTS
COULD BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE PACKAGES. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 85 69 86 / 0 50 50 50
MLU 68 84 68 85 / 20 50 50 70
DEQ 61 81 63 80 / 0 20 30 50
TXK 66 83 67 84 / 0 30 40 50
ELD 63 83 64 83 / 10 30 50 60
TYR 68 82 68 84 / 10 50 30 40
GGG 67 82 66 84 / 10 50 40 50
LFK 70 84 67 85 / 10 70 50 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...57
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