044
FXUS64 KSHV 280227
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
927 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM STORMS
ACROSS TEXAS COULD MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. /05/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING UNTIL SUNSET. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ULTIMATELY MAINTAINING FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG
ITS EDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /16/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE SEASONALLY PESKY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DISPLACED BY
RIDGING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO, UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL TRANSIT ITS PERIPHERY, DELIVERING A GLANCING
BLOW WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA ZONES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW
WEATHER PATTERN INTO MID-JUNE. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ALL REGIONAL SITES ARE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ALONG
PERIOD OF TUMULTUOUS WEATHER. CONDITIONS WILL STAY FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS NEAR CALM. I HAVE SEVERAL SITES DROPPING TO
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK IN ADDITION TO LOWERING
VISIBILITIES FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THESE IMPACTS
SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR IN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL
MIXING GETS GOING, RETURNING TO MVFR/VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE, SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
SOME CONVECTION AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-20 TOMORROW EVENING.
ASSUMING THINGS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH NEW DATA, SOME VCTS
COULD BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE PACKAGES. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 84 70 85 69 / 50 0 50 50
MLU 83 68 84 68 / 80 20 50 50
DEQ 80 61 81 63 / 20 0 20 30
TXK 81 66 83 67 / 30 0 30 40
ELD 81 63 83 64 / 60 10 30 50
TYR 83 68 82 68 / 30 10 50 30
GGG 83 67 82 66 / 40 10 50 40
LFK 86 70 84 67 / 70 10 70 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...57
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