617
FXUS64 KSHV 280813
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
313 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM STORMS
ACROSS TEXAS COULD MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. /05/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING UNTIL SUNSET. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ULTIMATELY MAINTAINING FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG
ITS EDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /16/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE SEASONALLY PESKY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DISPLACED BY
RIDGING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO, UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL TRANSIT ITS PERIPHERY, DELIVERING A GLANCING
BLOW WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA ZONES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW
WEATHER PATTERN INTO MID-JUNE. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING, THOUGH SOME
OBS ARE SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH BR, MAYBE A LAYER OF
FEW/SCT ELSEWHERE BELOW 2KFT. ELECTED TO TEMPO IN SOME BR AND
REDUCED VSBY'S TO COMBAT WHAT DOES MATERIALIZE, THOUGH THE HIGH
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE KEEPING FG/BR PROBS LOWER. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER SCT/BKN CU FIELD WILL EMERGE, WITH TSRA/SHRA
PROBS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL EXTEND NORTH AFTER 00Z AND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT,
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BKN/OVC CIGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED
WITH THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 69 86 69 / 30 40 50 20
MLU 85 68 85 68 / 30 40 70 30
DEQ 81 63 81 58 / 0 20 40 20
TXK 83 67 84 64 / 10 30 40 20
ELD 83 64 83 63 / 20 40 60 30
TYR 83 67 85 66 / 30 30 30 20
GGG 83 66 85 66 / 30 40 40 20
LFK 86 68 87 69 / 50 50 50 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...53
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