131
FXUS64 KSHV 281600
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
AS OF 1045 AM CDT, CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AS A RESULT. FORECAST GRIDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION, OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL GRID ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE. /16/
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, BUT CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TEXAS. SHORT-TERM PROGS
SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL DIMINISH AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF OUR EAST TEXAS ZONES A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, HIGHS WILL
STILL GET INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS, YESTERDAY'S COOL FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES PUSHES NORTH OF
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT,
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AS A
FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE FLOW. AT
THIS TIME, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER, BUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO, WITH THE 2
TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WE RECEIVED RECENTLY, ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS MARGINAL THREAT
HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR TEXAS/LOUISIANA ZONES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
BY FRIDAY, A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW, AND
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR SUNDAY, BUT SOME LONG-RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN, AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THIS IS VERY TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE, SO I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MODELS COME AROUND TO A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO RETURN BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, AS
UPPER RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY/SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECASTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
BROAD STRETCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING WITH
A MIX OF BKN/OVC AROUND FL200 TO FL250. AT THE SURFACE THOUGH,
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY BR/FG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AIRSPACE, AND SOME LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAS PREVAILED INSTANCES OF
MVFR, IFR AND LIFR. THIS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY LOCATED ACROSS SW
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
THOUGH SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
THE ARRIVAL OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. HI-RES CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS LINGERS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS,
POSSIBLY EVEN AS DEEP AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME NEWER
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
THIS FAR. THOUGH TERMINAL WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE VRB AND LIGHT,
STRONGER GUST WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY TSRA LATER IN THE PERIOD.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AFTER SUNSET. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 69 86 69 / 30 30 50 20
MLU 85 68 85 68 / 30 50 60 30
DEQ 81 63 81 58 / 10 10 40 20
TXK 83 67 84 64 / 10 20 40 20
ELD 83 64 83 63 / 20 30 50 30
TYR 83 67 85 66 / 40 40 30 20
GGG 83 66 85 66 / 40 40 30 20
LFK 86 68 87 69 / 70 50 50 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...53
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