335
FXUS64 KSHV 290553
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1253 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING, HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF OUR W/NW ZONES
OVERNIGHT. DO ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY FILL BACK IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK, AND THAT MAY HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND
DENSITY OF THE FOG. FARTHER EAST, CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING OVER
OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR SO DID
ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE, HAD
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE CURRENT
OBSERVED TRENDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT
THESE CHANGES.
/19/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE MOSTLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A NEW BATCH OF STORMS THIS EVENING THAT DRIFT INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
STREET FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH SOME PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. WITH ALL OF THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. /16/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE SEASONALLY PESKY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DISPLACED BY
RIDGING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO, UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL TRANSIT ITS PERIPHERY, DELIVERING A GLANCING
BLOW WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA ZONES ON TUESDAY (WITH SOME
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY). OTHERWISE, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW WEATHER PATTERN INTO
MID-JUNE. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
RA IS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING, AND IN IT'S
WAKE, INSTANCES OF CLEARING ACROSS ETX HAVE ALLOWED FOR FG/BR AND
LOW CIGS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE SCENARIO FOR MANY
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z AS THE CLOUDS LINKED TO THE PRECIP MOVE EAST
AS WELL. AS A RESULT, CONSERVATIVELY TEMPO'D IN A REDUCTION IN
VSBY'S FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ETX TERMINALS, WHERE IFR AND LIFR ARE
PRESENT, AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH A SCT/BKN CU FIELD LOOKS TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS BY
THE EVENING. HI-RES SOLUTIONS DEPICT ISO TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AIRSPACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE TERMINAL IMPACTS ASIDE FROM VICINITY.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AFTER SUNSET. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 70 83 64 / 40 30 10 0
MLU 85 70 82 62 / 60 30 20 0
DEQ 83 59 81 56 / 40 20 0 0
TXK 85 65 83 60 / 40 30 10 0
ELD 84 64 82 58 / 50 40 10 0
TYR 86 67 81 62 / 20 30 10 0
GGG 86 66 82 61 / 30 30 10 0
LFK 87 70 83 63 / 40 30 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...53
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