529
FXUS64 KSHV 290917
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
& CENTRAL LOUISIANA, AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
REGION. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. CURRENTLY, WE ARE WATCHING
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHORT-TERM PROGS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE IT GETS INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SO DECIDED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR
ADJACENT AREAS IN OUR FORECAST ZONES THIS MORNING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO SETTLE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES,
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NATCHITOCHES TO MONROE
LOUISIANA, AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. ALSO, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR IN EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS IS MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO A LEAD SHORT-WAVE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT, THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA NEAR SUNSET.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. ALSO, WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, ANY
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING 850 MB FRONT COULD PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL LINGERING CONVECTION IN OUR ZONES SOUTH OF THE US
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR OF TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
/20/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE SHOULD SEE COOLER MORNING LOWS, WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY, AND LOWER 60S
ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING IS FORECASTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR, WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SPLIT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-30 AND DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IN
AREAS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST, AS ANY CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE COULD MAKE A
MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
RA IS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING, AND IN IT'S
WAKE, INSTANCES OF CLEARING ACROSS ETX HAVE ALLOWED FOR FG/BR AND
LOW CIGS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE SCENARIO FOR MANY
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z AS THE CLOUDS LINKED TO THE PRECIP MOVE EAST
AS WELL. AS A RESULT, CONSERVATIVELY TEMPO'D IN A REDUCTION IN
VSBY'S FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ETX TERMINALS, WHERE IFR AND LIFR ARE
PRESENT, AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH A SCT/BKN CU FIELD LOOKS TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS BY
THE EVENING. HI-RES SOLUTIONS DEPICT ISO TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AIRSPACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE TERMINAL IMPACTS ASIDE FROM VICINITY.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
DESPITE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION, SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 71 84 64 / 10 20 10 0
MLU 86 70 82 63 / 20 10 20 0
DEQ 83 61 81 56 / 30 30 0 0
TXK 85 66 82 60 / 20 30 10 0
ELD 84 64 81 59 / 20 30 10 0
TYR 86 68 81 61 / 10 30 10 0
GGG 86 67 82 60 / 10 30 10 0
LFK 88 70 85 64 / 10 20 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page