250
FXUS64 KSHV 292007
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
307 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO RANGE AT 0.50-1.25
INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS AS JUNE BEGINS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS HEADING
TOWARDS THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. AS IT DOES SO, HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL KICKOFF A ROUND OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS AS POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED AS A RESULT WITH MILDER MINIMUMS TONIGHT (LOWER 70S) AND
COOLER MAXIMUMS (LOWER 80S) TOMORROW. /16/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JUNE IS TRENDING WETTER AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE EJECT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THE TIMING/DIRECTION/INTENSITY OF THE TROUGHS AND THEIR
EJECTION EASTWARD, WHICH DRIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS THE PRESENCE OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGING DRIFTS EAST, BOOSTING ONSHORE FLOW
AND TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE LOWER 90S. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO HANG ON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR WITH A
SCATTERED/BROKEN CU FIELD. ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULE OUT
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW
AR/NW LA, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TERMINALS
ATTM. THE CU SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 00Z, ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM OK AND THE OZARKS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
CU/STRATOCU CIGS NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW TX WILL SHIFT SE ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ACROSS N TX LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WITH
PORTIONS OF THIS CONVECTION BRIDGING E ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THIS CONVECTION
WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER/BECOME LOW MVFR/IFR FROM NW TO SE ALONG/N
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD S INTO DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA BETWEEN 12-15Z, IMPROVING FROM N
TO S ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AND LATE MORNING. THUS, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NE TX BY MID/LATE MORNING, AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. SW WINDS AROUND
5KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LT/VRB AFTER 00Z, BEFORE BECOMING
N 6-9KTS WITH THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 71 83 64 / 10 10 20 0
MLU 86 70 83 63 / 20 10 20 0
DEQ 83 61 81 56 / 30 30 10 0
TXK 85 66 82 60 / 20 30 10 0
ELD 84 64 81 58 / 20 20 20 0
TYR 86 68 81 62 / 10 30 20 0
GGG 86 67 81 60 / 10 20 20 0
LFK 88 71 84 63 / 10 10 30 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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