863
FXUS64 KSHV 300306
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1006 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MAKE SOME SE PROGRESS INTO OUR FAR
NW ZONES THIS EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. FOR THAT REASON,
STILL DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT, A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER A SOLID MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TO RESPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE INTENSE
STORMS CONTAINING SOME SMALLER HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. FOR
THIS UPDATE, DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD JUST SLIGHTLY AS MORE RECENT
RUNS OF HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES DEEPER PROGRESS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE REGION GIVEN THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE MORE DELAYED ARRIVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERNMOST
ZONES. OTHER THAN THOSE MINOR POP CHANGES, THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
/19/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO RANGE AT 0.50-1.25
INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS AS JUNE BEGINS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS HEADING
TOWARDS THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. AS IT DOES SO, HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL KICKOFF A ROUND OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS AS POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED AS A RESULT WITH MILDER MINIMUMS TONIGHT (LOWER 70S) AND
COOLER MAXIMUMS (LOWER 80S) TOMORROW. /16/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JUNE IS TRENDING WETTER AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE EJECT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THE TIMING/DIRECTION/INTENSITY OF THE TROUGHS AND THEIR
EJECTION EASTWARD, WHICH DRIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS THE PRESENCE OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGING DRIFTS EAST, BOOSTING ONSHORE FLOW
AND TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE LOWER 90S. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS, THIS AFTERNOON'S LOWER VFR CU FIELD IS
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND WILL FURTHER DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE, INCREASING SKY COVERAGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF INCOMING SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
DETERIORATE TO LOW MVR AND IFR OVERNIGHT, IMPROVING AGAIN TOWARDS
MID-MORNING AND MIDDAY TOMORROW. VCTS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CONFIRMED TO OUR EAST TEXAS TERMINALS, WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ASSUMING A NORTHERLY
ORIENTATION TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND ISOLATED GUSTS,
IF ANY, OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 83 64 87 / 30 30 0 0
MLU 70 83 63 86 / 10 20 0 0
DEQ 61 81 56 84 / 40 10 0 0
TXK 66 82 60 85 / 40 20 0 0
ELD 64 81 58 85 / 30 30 0 0
TYR 68 81 62 85 / 40 30 0 0
GGG 67 81 60 85 / 40 30 0 0
LFK 71 84 63 86 / 20 30 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...26
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