771
FXUS64 KSHV 130014
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
714 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
THE MCV THAT AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD, AT TIMES
INTENSE, CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS NOT QUITE AS
WELL DEFINED AS EARLIER. IT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROUGH VERY CLOSE OF THE US HWY 82 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LAST MAIN BAND OF STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUACHITA,
CALDWELL, WINN, GRANT, AND LASALLE PARISHES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
THERE IS ALSO STILL A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO,
MAINLY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY BAND OF
STORMS USED MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
FARTHER TO THE WEST, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OR SPOTTY. THEREFORE, THE
CURRENT PLAN IS TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH, AND IT
SHOULD EXPIRE AT 00Z (7 PM CDT) THIS EVENING.
AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
MOVE INTO ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN DURING
FRIDAY. COVERAGE AND RAIN RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WE SAW
TODAY. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, MUCH OF LOUISIANA, AND
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINEOLA TX TO JENA LA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY.
WITH LESS CONVECTION AND A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY DAY WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE FOR
FRIDAY.
NUTTALL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH, THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL, WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK PERTURBATION TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COME TO
AN ABRUPT END LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STOUT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, A SURE SIGN THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
AS RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BECOMES
MORE SCATTERED AND LIMITED, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
CLIMB UPWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND, AND MID 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WITH ALL THE RAIN WE'VE HAD RECENTLY, THERE WILL BE
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE EVAPORATING OUT OF THE SOIL AND THE
VEGETATION. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW, VERY
MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF LONG-TERM
PERIOD.
NUTTALL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, SPARSE CONVECTION TODAY AS WE
MAINTAINED CLOUDS/STABILITY W/ HIGHS NEAR 80. THE UPPER LOW IS
EDGING OVER E OK ATTM. WE ARE STILL LOADED W/ MOISTURE AND THE
TROUGH AXIS SWEEP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN TMRW AFTN. GUIDANCE IS JUST A "SPARSELY" AGREEABLE IN
THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ASIDE FROM KTXK/KELD/KMLU WITH VCSH/TS AND
AMENDMENTS TO COME WHEN BETTER EVIDENT, LIKE NOW FRI13THZ. S
WINDS RUN DEEP TO THE FZL (85%RH/136) SFC5KT-12Z & 10KT BY 15Z.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
WHILE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ISOLATED TODAY,
SPOTTER ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 88 74 91 / 60 50 30 50
MLU 71 87 71 89 / 70 70 50 70
DEQ 67 85 69 87 / 50 60 40 40
TXK 70 88 73 89 / 60 60 40 50
ELD 67 86 69 87 / 70 60 50 70
TYR 70 89 74 91 / 30 40 10 30
GGG 69 88 72 91 / 40 50 20 40
LFK 70 87 73 92 / 50 60 10 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-
017-018.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...24
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