813
FXUS64 KSHV 130935 RRA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER AS RAIN CHANCES
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING.
- RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO
RANGE AT 0.50-1.25 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER EAST,
CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND GULF COAST.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS LATER NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE AS THE
WEEKEND BEGINS. POCKETS OF FORECAST PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THAT SAID, DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 DEGREES, MAINTAINING MUGGY OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS AND
MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND
MID-70S, RESPECTIVELY. /16/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
TRAPPED BEHIND ATLANTIC RIDGING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEING DISPLACED BY RIDGING TO THE
WEST. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED, TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL REACHING THE MID-90S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT
SW AR, WHICH WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE AREA. FARTHER E, IFR CIGS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AR AND NCNTRL LA JUST W OF
MLU, WHICH SHOULD LINGER/SPREAD E INTO MLU THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ADDITIONAL IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 09Z ELSEWHERE
ACROSS E TX/NW LA, WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP BY/AFTER
10Z OVER CNTRL AND NE LA, AFFECTING MLU PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE CONTINUED VCSH
MENTION HERE, ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
ELSEWHERE, THUS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE OTHER
TERMINALS ATTM. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY, AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.
SOME CU MAY LINGER AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL AC/CIRRUS
CIGS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT MAY LINGER OVER SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR. LIGHT
S WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SSW 5-8KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 74 92 75 / 40 10 40 20
MLU 88 72 92 74 / 50 30 60 30
DEQ 86 69 89 71 / 40 30 30 10
TXK 89 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
ELD 87 69 89 71 / 40 30 50 20
TYR 88 74 90 74 / 30 10 30 10
GGG 88 72 91 73 / 30 10 30 10
LFK 89 72 92 73 / 50 10 50 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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