652
FXUS64 KSHV 131201 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER AS RAIN CHANCES
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING.
- RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO
RANGE AT 0.50-1.25 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER EAST,
CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND GULF COAST.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS LATER NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE AS THE
WEEKEND BEGINS. POCKETS OF FORECAST PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THAT SAID, DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 DEGREES, MAINTAINING MUGGY OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS AND
MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND
MID-70S, RESPECTIVELY. /16/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
TRAPPED BEHIND ATLANTIC RIDGING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEING DISPLACED BY RIDGING TO THE
WEST. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED, TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL REACHING THE MID-90S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
IFR/PATCHY LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF E TX/SW AR, AS WELL AS NCNTRL AND NE LA, WITH ADDITIONAL LOW
CIGS (PRIMARILY MVFR) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING BY MID AND LATE MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NE LA, AND MAY BUILD AS FAR N
AS MLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION BY
MIDDAY, WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION BUILDING N AND AFFECTING LFK BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS MENTION HERE, ALTHOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION ELSEWHERE AND WILL BE AMENDED AS
NEEDED. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH
SOME RESIDUAL CU MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY/AFTER 09Z SATURDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND GRADUALLY ADVECT NNE INTO WRN LA BY
DAYBREAK, AFFECTING THE I-20 TERMINALS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
LFK REMAINS THE ONLY TERMINAL WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
THESE CIGS IN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THESE CIGS SHOULD
AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS BY THE END AND JUST BEYOND. SSW
WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL BECOME S 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 74 92 75 / 40 10 40 20
MLU 88 72 92 74 / 50 30 60 30
DEQ 86 69 89 71 / 40 30 30 10
TXK 89 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
ELD 87 69 89 71 / 40 30 50 20
TYR 88 74 90 74 / 30 10 30 10
GGG 88 72 91 73 / 30 10 30 10
LFK 89 72 92 73 / 50 10 50 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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