175
FXUS64 KSHV 131728
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND THE REGION ON RECENT
RADAR IMAGERY, WHICH IS ACCOMPANIED BY SLOWLY SCATTERING CLOUD
COVER. EVEN THOUGH RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED TODAY, THERE ARE
STILL PLENTY OF RIVERS AND URBAN AREAS WITH FLOODING THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. BUT THE REGULAR FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
RECENT TRENDS, SO NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS
MORNING'S PACKAGE. /57/
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER AS RAIN CHANCES
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING.
- RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO
RANGE AT 0.50-1.25 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER EAST,
CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND GULF COAST.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS LATER NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE AS THE
WEEKEND BEGINS. POCKETS OF FORECAST PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THAT SAID, DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 DEGREES, MAINTAINING MUGGY OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS AND
MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND
MID-70S, RESPECTIVELY. /16/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
TRAPPED BEHIND ATLANTIC RIDGING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEING DISPLACED BY RIDGING TO THE
WEST. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED, TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL REACHING THE MID-90S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
FOR THE 13/18Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ONLY TERMINAL THEY HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO IMPACT IS KMLU WHERE SOME -RA AND +RA WAS SEEN FOR A
SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM AT THIS
POINT ASIDE FROM SOME VCTS FOR KLFK. LOWER VISIBILITY AND CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR A FEW LOCATIONS THAT COULD BRING SOME
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 92 75 92 / 10 40 20 40
MLU 72 92 74 91 / 30 60 30 50
DEQ 69 89 71 88 / 30 30 10 30
TXK 73 91 74 89 / 20 40 20 40
ELD 69 89 71 90 / 30 50 20 40
TYR 74 90 74 90 / 10 30 10 30
GGG 72 91 73 90 / 10 30 10 40
LFK 72 92 73 93 / 10 50 10 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33
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