119
FXUS64 KSHV 131854
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
154 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
THE SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE THAT HAS BROUGHT A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
RAINFALL TO THE ARK-LA-TX HAS MEANDERED OFF TOWARD THE NE CONUS.
THIS WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THIS PERIOD TO ANY POP
UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEEN IN PARTS OF OUR SOUTH AND
EASTERN ZONES IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. DESPITE THE COMPARATIVE
LACK OF CONTINUED RAINFALL EXPECTED, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE HEAT AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS SUCH, OUR
TYPICAL MUGGY SUMMER HAS RETURNED TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO REFLECT THIS TREND, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE ADDITIONAL
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT BEING
SOLIDLY IN THE 70S. /57/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
A WELL-DEFINED ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THEIR MONSOON SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP PREVENT LARGE
TROUGHS FROM SWEEPING THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL SWATHS OF
RAINFALL TO THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THIS RISK LOWER OVER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, SOILS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM ALL THE
RECENT RAIN, RESULTING IN A LOWER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE DAY 4 ERO FROM WPC, WHICH HAS OUR REGION EXITING
THE 5% RISK OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL BY MONDAY. THE TYPICAL
SUMMER POP UP THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO STAYING MOSTLY DRY, THE TREND OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /57/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
FOR THE 13/18Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ONLY TERMINAL THEY HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO IMPACT IS KMLU WHERE SOME -RA AND +RA WAS SEEN FOR A
SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM AT THIS
POINT ASIDE FROM SOME VCTS FOR KLFK. LOWER VISIBILITY AND CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR A FEW LOCATIONS THAT COULD BRING SOME
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 92 75 92 / 10 40 20 40
MLU 72 92 74 91 / 30 60 30 50
DEQ 69 89 71 88 / 30 30 10 30
TXK 73 91 74 89 / 20 40 20 40
ELD 69 89 71 90 / 30 50 20 40
TYR 74 90 74 90 / 10 30 10 30
GGG 72 91 73 90 / 10 30 10 40
LFK 72 92 73 93 / 10 50 10 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...33
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