066
FXUS64 KSHV 132359
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
659 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
THE SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE THAT HAS BROUGHT A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
RAINFALL TO THE ARK-LA-TX HAS MEANDERED OFF TOWARD THE NE CONUS.
THIS WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THIS PERIOD TO ANY POP
UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEEN IN PARTS OF OUR SOUTH AND
EASTERN ZONES IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. DESPITE THE COMPARATIVE
LACK OF CONTINUED RAINFALL EXPECTED, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE HEAT AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS SUCH, OUR
TYPICAL MUGGY SUMMER HAS RETURNED TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO REFLECT THIS TREND, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE ADDITIONAL
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT BEING
SOLIDLY IN THE 70S. /57/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
A WELL-DEFINED ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THEIR MONSOON SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP PREVENT LARGE
TROUGHS FROM SWEEPING THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL SWATHS OF
RAINFALL TO THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THIS RISK LOWER OVER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, SOILS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM ALL THE
RECENT RAIN, RESULTING IN A LOWER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE DAY 4 ERO FROM WPC, WHICH HAS OUR REGION EXITING
THE 5% RISK OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL BY MONDAY. THE TYPICAL
SUMMER POP UP THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO STAYING MOSTLY DRY, THE TREND OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /57/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY
BY 12Z AT SEVERAL SITES. SOME LATE MORNING VICINITY SHOWERS WILL
BLOOM INTO SOME DIURNAL AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIT OR MISS FASHION. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE PUSH EVENTUALLY MEETS
UP WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ARRIVING LATE DAY FOR OUR I-30 CORRIDOR, JUST AS THE SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY SLOWLY WANES. THIS NEW ENERGY MAY LATER AFFECT OUR I-20
TERMINALS TMRW EVE. SFC WIND S-5KT OVERNIGHT & SW-10KT BY 15Z.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 93 76 93 / 10 30 20 40
MLU 72 93 74 92 / 20 50 30 60
DEQ 69 89 71 89 / 20 30 10 30
TXK 73 92 74 91 / 20 30 10 40
ELD 70 91 71 90 / 20 50 20 50
TYR 74 91 75 90 / 10 20 10 20
GGG 72 91 73 90 / 10 30 10 30
LFK 72 92 73 92 / 20 40 10 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...24
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