196
FXUS64 KSHV 140931
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
431 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN CHANCES
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING THIS WEEKEND.
- RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
AT 0.50-1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND GULF COAST.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS LATER NEXT WEEK.
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH INVERTED
TROUGHING OVERHEAD SETTING UP A MINI-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID, THE DEGREE OF INTENSITY OR IMPACT
FROM WILL BE MUTED BY DRIER AIR INFILTRATION AND SLIGHTLY QUIETER
EMBEDDED FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
BY SUNDAY, DRIVING HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 70 DEGREES, MAINTAINING MUGGY OUTDOOR CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN
NEAR-NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND MID-70S, RESPECTIVELY.
/16/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS TRAPPED BEHIND ATLANTIC RIDGING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEING DISPLACED BY RIDGING
TO THE WEST. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING, TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS WILL RETURN ABOVE
NORMAL REACHING THE MID-90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF
E TX NEAR TYR/GGG, BENEATH THE EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CIGS IN PLACE
ACROSS E TX/N LA/SRN AR FROM CONVECTION WHICH HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS SE TX. THESE LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND
ACROSS E TX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PORTIONS OF N LA/SW AR BY/AFTER 12Z, BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING/RETURNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. THESE CIGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER SE
TX, AND SHOULD BUILD N INTO DEEP E TX, POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LFK
TERMINAL AROUND/AFTER 18Z, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS TYR/GGG BY
21-22Z. HAVE DELAYED VCTS MENTION FOR THE LATTER TERMINALS UNTIL
THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP NOW ENTERING NW KS MAY BUILD SE AND MAY
INTENSIFY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OK, WITH
ITS REMNANTS POSSIBLY ENTERING SE OK/SW AR AND PORTIONS OF N LA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WITH
EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE (AND WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL
MATERIALIZE OR NOT) REMAINS LOW, AND THUS, HAVE NOT ADDED VCTS
MENTION TO THE SW AR/N LA TERMINALS AS OF YET AND WILL RE-EVALUATE
AGAIN FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING, ANY IFR/LOW MVFR
CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT AS TO WHETHER ANY
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. S
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 6-9KTS AFTER 15Z.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 75 89 75 / 50 20 60 10
MLU 92 72 91 74 / 50 30 70 20
DEQ 89 70 88 70 / 40 20 40 10
TXK 92 73 89 73 / 40 20 50 10
ELD 90 70 88 71 / 40 30 60 20
TYR 90 73 89 74 / 40 10 40 10
GGG 90 72 89 73 / 40 20 50 10
LFK 90 72 90 73 / 60 20 60 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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