658
FXUS64 KSHV 141532
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1032 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST SKIES COVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, AS SEEN
ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF
CONVECTION THAT HAVE INITIATED IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. THESE ARE LIKELY MORE DIURNAL POP UPS AND SHOULD
STAY RELATIVELY DISCREET, DUE TO THE LACK OF A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR OTHER MECHANISM THAT WOULD LEAD TO BETTER
ORGANIZATION. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED, WE WILL BE
WATCHING THESE STORMS FOR SEVERE HAZARDS AND FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. RECENT OBSERVATIONS WERE
LOADED IN BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. /57/
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN CHANCES
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING THIS WEEKEND.
- RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
AT 0.50-1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND GULF COAST.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS LATER NEXT WEEK.
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH INVERTED
TROUGHING OVERHEAD SETTING UP A MINI-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID, THE DEGREE OF INTENSITY OR IMPACT
FROM WILL BE MUTED BY DRIER AIR INFILTRATION AND SLIGHTLY QUIETER
EMBEDDED FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
BY SUNDAY, DRIVING HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 70 DEGREES, MAINTAINING MUGGY OUTDOOR CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN
NEAR-NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND MID-70S, RESPECTIVELY.
/16/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS TRAPPED BEHIND ATLANTIC RIDGING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEING DISPLACED BY RIDGING
TO THE WEST. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING, TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS WILL RETURN ABOVE
NORMAL REACHING THE MID-90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS DEEP E TX, NCNTRL AND
NE LA, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD N INTO PORTIONS
OF NW LA AND EXTREME ERN TX THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING/BECOMING MVFR. FARTHER W, MVFR CIGS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF ECNTRL AND NE TX INTO SE OK, WITH IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED HERE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. WHILE THE CU FIELD SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY, SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER GALVESTON BAY AND PORTIONS OF SW LA WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING, INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX AND N LA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTION COVERAGE
AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-24Z AND N LA (SHV/MLU)
BY/AFTER 22Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREADING SE ACROSS
SRN KS/NE OK ATTM MAY EVENTUALLY SPILL INTO SE OK/SW AR BY MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE SW AR TERMINALS BY/AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
SINCE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE, HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED VCTS MENTION FOR THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS, WHICH COULD
EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF N LA. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THESE AREAS
BY LATE EVENING, WITH ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LIFR/IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RAIN-
COOLED AREAS LATE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS DEEP E TX/WCNTRL LA AFTER 08Z. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA MAY EVENTUALLY SEE THESE LOW CIGS DEVELOP BY/AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING. S
WINDS 5-8KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z, EXCEPT
STRONG/GUSTY IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION, AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
MINOR FLOODING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 75 89 75 / 50 20 60 10
MLU 92 72 91 74 / 50 30 70 20
DEQ 89 70 88 70 / 40 20 40 10
TXK 92 73 89 73 / 40 20 50 10
ELD 90 70 88 71 / 40 30 60 20
TYR 90 73 89 74 / 40 10 40 10
GGG 90 72 89 73 / 40 20 50 10
LFK 90 72 90 73 / 60 20 60 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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