692
FXUS64 KSHV 150324
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1024 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS/WX NOW THROUGH THE PREDAWN, WHERE WE HAVE
LOADED IN NEW NBM WITH SOME OBSERVATIONAL SALT. OUR OLD BOUNDARY
BISECTS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT HRRR SHOWS NEW DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK ALONG THE AR/LA STATE LINE, THEN EXPANDING OUTWARD.
MEANWHILE, WE STILL SEE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN N OK, WHICH
WILL HEAD THIS WAY OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT THE
MODEL DOES A GOOD JOB OF KEEPING THE SHIELDS UP WHERE THE LAST OF
ACTIVITY BETWEEN TEXARKANA AND SHREVEPORT WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE
STABLE AND DIRECTS MOST OF THE OK ACTIVITY INTO NE TX. THIS IS
WHERE VERY LITTLE CROPPED UP LATE ON THE THOSE BOUNDARIES. NO
CHANGES TO OUR SUNDAY DAYLIGHT EXPECTIONS AT THIS TIME, RATHER
WAITING ON THE 00Z NEW RUNS. SO WE MAY DO WELL AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MORE RAINFALL BEFORE THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE
RIDGE POISES TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND. /24/
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
QUICK UPDATE TO EVENING POPS/WX FOR PARTS OF NE TX WHERE OUTFLOW
CONVECTION WILL USE UP THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT IN THIS WARM AND
MUGGY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE TO FEED ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
CLUSTERING ACROSS UPSHUR AND MARION COUNTIES. ALSO, DUE TO
RAINFALL, WE HAVE BACKED OFF MID 70S FOR LOWER AT TEXARKANA AND
SHREVEPORT WITH TEMPS ALREADY THERE IN SHREVEPORT AND TEXARKANA
NOT FAR AWAY. IT IS STILL 90 IN LUFKIN WHERE THEY COULD USE A
COOLING SHOWER. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME, BUT PERHAPS AGAIN
BEFORE 10PM. /24/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
CONVECTION THAT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY. THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CONTAINING LONG INTO THE NIGHT, IF ANY STORMS REMAIN AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN MCS WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
OKLAHOMA ON FATHER'S DAY MORNING, WHICH COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO
OUR FAR WESTERN SITES. AT THIS TIME, SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED EAST
TEXAS AS A REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW, SO RAIN
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FORM THIS MCS.
HOWEVER, A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS RAIN ISN'T EXPECTED
TO BE TERRIBLY HEAVY, BUT THE SOIL IS PLENTY SATURATED ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE SOME FLASH FLOODING RISK. THE RAINFALL WILL MAKE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW 90S.
AS NIGHT FALLS, THE RAIN RISK WILL SHIFT TO BE ACROSS MORE OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE AMPLE
MOISTURE PRESENT WILL LARGELY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. /57/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
MORE DIRUNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, ALLOWING SOILS TO RECOVER AND LESSENING THE FLASH FLOODING
RISK. IN ADDITION, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MOVING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY. IT'LL BE
MORE OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS. THE ONLY ASPECT THAT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN, ALLOWING
THE AMBIENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REACH THE ARK-LA-TX AGAIN. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN TRYING TO SWEEP THROUGH TO DO
JUST THAT. BUT THAT SHOULDN'T CHANGE THE CONDITIONS WE SEE ON THE
GROUND MUCH: HOT AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
/57/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY HAS GONE BY THE
WAY SIDE, BUT THE OUTFLOW LIFTING OVER THE AR/LA STATE LINE HAS
REGENERATED THE LINE OVER NE TX/SW AR IN PARTICULAR W/ DOWN POURS
AND GUSTS TO 35KT. THIS IS ALL IN BETWEEN OUR I-30 AND I-20
CORRIDORS, AND IN BETWEEN TERMINALS SO TO SPEAK. KELD JUST ENDING
TS WITH LINE COLLAPSING. WE WILL MONITOR UNTIL SUNDOWN AND EXPECT
MORE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER MCS ON LIGHT NW FLOW MAY MEET UP WITH
ANOTHER SEA BREEZE. S/SW WINDS PREVAIL 5-15KT OUTSIDE OF TS. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION, AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
MINOR FLOODING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 90 75 90 / 20 60 20 50
MLU 72 88 73 89 / 10 80 30 60
DEQ 71 87 69 86 / 30 50 20 40
TXK 73 90 72 88 / 30 60 20 40
ELD 71 88 70 87 / 30 70 30 60
TYR 74 90 73 89 / 10 40 10 30
GGG 73 89 72 88 / 10 50 20 40
LFK 73 90 73 90 / 10 60 10 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...24
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