710
FXUS64 KSHV 150558 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS/WX NOW THROUGH THE PREDAWN, WHERE WE HAVE
LOADED IN NEW NBM WITH SOME OBSERVATIONAL SALT. OUR OLD BOUNDARY
BISECTS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT HRRR SHOWS NEW DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK ALONG THE AR/LA STATE LINE, THEN EXPANDING OUTWARD.
MEANWHILE, WE STILL SEE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN N OK, WHICH
WILL HEAD THIS WAY OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT THE
MODEL DOES A GOOD JOB OF KEEPING THE SHIELDS UP WHERE THE LAST OF
ACTIVITY BETWEEN TEXARKANA AND SHREVEPORT WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE
STABLE AND DIRECTS MOST OF THE OK ACTIVITY INTO NE TX. THIS IS
WHERE VERY LITTLE CROPPED UP LATE ON THE THOSE BOUNDARIES. NO
CHANGES TO OUR SUNDAY DAYLIGHT EXPECTATIONS AT THIS TIME, RATHER
WAITING ON THE 00Z NEW RUNS. SO WE MAY DO WELL AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MORE RAINFALL BEFORE THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE
RIDGE POISES TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AND SOME PATCHY DENSE AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP WHERE RAIN SOAKED THE SOIL, AS WINDS GET LIGHTER TOWARD
DAYBREAK. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS AC AND CIRRUS CIGS LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS LOWER E TX INTO
WRN AND CNTRL LA, AND SPREAD N ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AND AFTER
DAYBREAK. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD AFFECT THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
09-12Z, AND THE REMAINING TERMINALS AFTER 12-13Z, BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING BY MID AND LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER SE OK/EXTREME NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR BY/AFTER 12Z, AND SPREAD SSE INTO NE TX/SW AR
THROUGH THE MORNING, WHILE BUILDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF E TX/N
LA BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS, REDUCED VSBYS, AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM N TO S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO REINFORCE A
WEAK SFC FRONT S INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, WHICH COULD FOCUS ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING TXK/ELD. HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS FOR
THESE TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING, WITH ANY LOW CIGS/PATCHY FG
LIKELY WAITING UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD OR
CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY TO DEVELOP. S WINDS 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT
LT/VRB OVER SW AR/NE LA, WILL BECOME SSW 5-10KTS AREAWIDE AFTER
15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL
AS THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 75 90 76 / 60 20 50 10
MLU 88 73 89 74 / 80 30 60 20
DEQ 87 69 86 71 / 50 20 40 0
TXK 90 72 88 75 / 60 20 40 10
ELD 88 70 87 71 / 70 30 60 10
TYR 90 73 89 74 / 40 10 30 0
GGG 89 72 88 74 / 50 20 40 10
LFK 90 73 90 74 / 60 10 50 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
AVIATION...15
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