444
FXUS64 KSHV 150949
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
449 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY WITH ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS GOING INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK ARE
LIKELY TO RANGE AT 0.50-1.25 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER
EAST, CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND GULF COAST.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THIS WORKWEEK.
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH INVERTED
TROUGHING OVERHEAD SETTING UP A MINI-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY SUNDAY, DRIVING HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 DEGREES, MAINTAINING MUGGY OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS AND
MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND
MID-70S, RESPECTIVELY. /16/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS TRAPPED BEHIND ATLANTIC RIDGING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEING DISPLACED BY RIDGING
TO THE WEST. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING, TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS WILL RETURN ABOVE
NORMAL REACHING THE MID-90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS AC AND CIRRUS CIGS LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS LOWER E TX INTO
WRN AND CNTRL LA, AND SPREAD N ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AND AFTER
DAYBREAK. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD AFFECT THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
09-12Z, AND THE REMAINING TERMINALS AFTER 12-13Z, BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING BY MID AND LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER SE OK/EXTREME NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR BY/AFTER 12Z, AND SPREAD SSE INTO NE TX/SW AR
THROUGH THE MORNING, WHILE BUILDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF E TX/N
LA BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS, REDUCED VSBYS, AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM N TO S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO REINFORCE A
WEAK SFC FRONT S INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, WHICH COULD FOCUS ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING TXK/ELD. HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS FOR
THESE TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING, WITH ANY LOW CIGS/PATCHY FG
LIKELY WAITING UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD OR
CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY TO DEVELOP. S WINDS 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT
LT/VRB OVER SW AR/NE LA, WILL BECOME SSW 5-10KTS AREAWIDE AFTER
15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 75 90 76 / 50 40 50 10
MLU 92 73 89 74 / 50 40 70 20
DEQ 85 70 87 71 / 70 40 30 0
TXK 89 72 89 74 / 60 40 50 10
ELD 89 69 86 71 / 60 50 70 10
TYR 90 74 89 75 / 50 30 30 0
GGG 90 73 88 73 / 50 40 40 10
LFK 92 73 91 73 / 50 40 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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