954
FXUS64 KSHV 151157 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
657 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY WITH ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS GOING INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK ARE
LIKELY TO RANGE AT 0.50-1.25 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER
EAST, CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND GULF COAST.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THIS WORKWEEK.
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH INVERTED
TROUGHING OVERHEAD SETTING UP A MINI-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY SUNDAY, DRIVING HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 DEGREES, MAINTAINING MUGGY OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS AND
MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND
MID-70S, RESPECTIVELY. /16/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS TRAPPED BEHIND ATLANTIC RIDGING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEING DISPLACED BY RIDGING
TO THE WEST. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING, TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS WILL RETURN ABOVE
NORMAL REACHING THE MID-90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
IFR CIGS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE
IMPROVED TO LOW MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/WRN LA, ALTHOUGH SOME
IFR/LIFR CIGS ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF -RA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AN MCS OVER SRN AND SE OK
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SSE INTO N AND NE TX, WITH ACCOMPANYING
MESOSCALE BNDRYS LIKELY AIDING IN CONVECTION INITIATION BY MID
AND LATE MORNING OVER NE TX/SW AR, POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SE
TX, WHICH SHOULD BUILD NE INTO DEEP E TX/WCNTRL LA AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF THE MCS FARTHER UPSTREAM, AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
LFK/SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 35KTS, MVFR CIGS, AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR THE CONVECTION, WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE REINFORCED S, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE
SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. WHILE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, SOME LOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE OVER THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DICTATED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA/SRN AR. SSW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME S 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP, AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 75 90 76 / 50 40 50 10
MLU 92 73 89 74 / 50 40 70 20
DEQ 85 70 87 71 / 70 40 30 0
TXK 89 72 89 74 / 60 40 50 10
ELD 89 69 86 71 / 60 50 70 10
TYR 90 74 89 75 / 50 30 30 0
GGG 90 73 88 73 / 50 40 40 10
LFK 92 73 91 73 / 50 40 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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