015
FXUS64 KSHV 151903
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
203 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND NORTHERN MEXICO, WITH
INFLUENCE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE
MADE OUT OVER THE ARKLATEX AND NEARBY LOWER MS VALLEY. TO THE
NORTH OF BOTH THE RIDGE AND THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS
THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WHERE THE STORM TRACK RESIDES OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CONUS AND NEAR THE BORDER WITH CANADA. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE, A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY RESIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS,
WITH A RICH MOISTURE PROFILE NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, WHICH IS IN ADDITION TO A PROLONGED
MCS THAT MOVED OUT OF OK THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
TX AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. ASIDE FROM THE MCS, WHOSE EASTERN
FLANK IS SLOWING ENCROACHING ONTO FAR E TX COUNTIES, MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY IS SINGLE CELL IN NATURE, DRIVEN LARGELY BY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED INSTABILITY AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. COVERAGE OF THIS NATURE IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, AND
WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BETTER THIS AFTERNOON BY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE MCS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY, MAINLY CARRYING A WIND THREAT GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT POTENTIAL DESPITE MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE ABSENCE
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT A FEW STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE MCS AS IT MOVES INTO NE TX GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL MAINTENANCE.
THIS EVENING WILL BE TRICKY, MAINLY GIVEN THE LINGERING MID
LEVEL INDUCED ENERGY FROM THE MCS AS WELL AS THE WEAK TROUGH
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW MOVING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE A LOSS IN DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING, IT APPEARS THERE COULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT MID
SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE HIGHER
RES GUIDANCE IS NOT EXACTLY ON BOARD WITH THIS THINKING, EXCEPT
THE NAM, THE NBM IS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
GIVEN ENOUGH METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE
TRICKY PRECIP FORECAST, IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70S AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS.
MUCH OF THE SAME APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HEATING AS DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDES ITS ADDITIONAL
INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LARGELY BE ABSENT, THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM CARRYING MOSTLY A WIND THREAT. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE LARGELY SIMILAR TO THAT OF SUNDAY, WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS ALSO PERSISTING.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
ON MONDAY AND DECREASING PVA IN TANDEM WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A QUIETER OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. THERE WILL BE
NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH THE SLOW EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SO
LOOK FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS; WARM AND MUGGY, TO REMAIN IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT.
KOVACIK
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE DEPARTURE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE OFF TO A DRY
START, WITH SKIES ATTEMPTING TO SCATTER OUT FROM NW TO SE. WHILE
THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE, IT WILL
NOT QUITE BE IN THE BEST POSITION TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE RAIN
CHANCES. PROVIDED THE CONTINUED WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE LOWER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS REMAINS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES, AS THESE AREAS WILL BE FURTHEST FROM
THE RIDGE INFLUENCE AND MORE PRONE TO NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE FROM SOUTHERN LA, RESPECTIVELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN THAT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LARGELY
ENDING CONVECTION. CONTINUED WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL CARRY INTO
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUE TO THINK
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WITH ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT TRIES TO
MAKES ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THAT SAID, BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE RIDGE COULD RETROGRADE ENOUGH TO OPEN TO THE LOCAL
AREA TO EITHER A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN OR A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN. WITH THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND/OR SFC WAVE RESULTANT FROM THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OK SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS
POINT IN TIME, WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE OK AND
PORTIONS OF SW AR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN WITH SOUTHERN PROPAGATION.
WEAK NW FLOW UNFORTUNATELY ATTEMPTS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONVECTIVE/PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, PRIOR CONVECTION, ETC. RIGHT NOW, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN NO
CHANGE IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WILL SEE HOW THAT TRENDS IN THE
COMING DAYS AND THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
LOOK TO VERIFY, WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WOULD DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, LEAVING US WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION THAT COULD BE HAMPERED BY SINKING AIR FROM THE RIDGE.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
FOR THE 15/18Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN SOME POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, I HAVE VCTS MENTIONED FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON. I ONLY HAD SOME
RAIN WRITTEN IN FOR A FEW LOCATIONS, HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT
MORE SITES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SORT OF SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH SOME IFR MIXED IN THERE AT TIMES. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP, AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 90 76 93 / 40 50 10 10
MLU 73 89 74 93 / 40 70 20 30
DEQ 70 87 71 90 / 40 30 0 0
TXK 72 89 74 92 / 40 50 10 0
ELD 69 86 71 92 / 50 70 10 20
TYR 74 89 75 90 / 30 30 0 0
GGG 73 88 73 90 / 40 40 10 0
LFK 73 91 73 93 / 40 40 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...33
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