985
FXUS64 KSHV 160601
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
101 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOOKING AT THE HRRR PRIMARILY. THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD, BUT STILL WE HAVE SLIGHT AND
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. AS FAR AS
FORECAST LOWS, ONCE AGAIN WE ARE NOT FAR FROM HOME WITH JUST AS
MANY LOW 70S ALREADY AS MID TO UPPER 70S LEFT. AND WE WILL SEE A
FEW UPPER 60S AND MOSTLY LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WEEK. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER LIKE
MINDED DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION COMING TOGETHER FOR ONE LAST
HURRAH BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGING APPLIES A LITTLE MORE SUMMER HEAT
WITH LESS RAIN IN THE OFFING. ZONES ARE RUNNING AND WILL BE SENT
MOMENTARILY. MINOR GRAPHICS CHANGES WITH LOWER 70S. /24/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND NORTHERN MEXICO, WITH
INFLUENCE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE
MADE OUT OVER THE ARKLATEX AND NEARBY LOWER MS VALLEY. TO THE
NORTH OF BOTH THE RIDGE AND THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS
THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WHERE THE STORM TRACK RESIDES OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CONUS AND NEAR THE BORDER WITH CANADA. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE, A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY RESIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS,
WITH A RICH MOISTURE PROFILE NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, WHICH IS IN ADDITION TO A PROLONGED
MCS THAT MOVED OUT OF OK THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
TX AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. ASIDE FROM THE MCS, WHOSE EASTERN
FLANK IS SLOWING ENCROACHING ONTO FAR E TX COUNTIES, MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY IS SINGLE CELL IN NATURE, DRIVEN LARGELY BY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED INSTABILITY AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. COVERAGE OF THIS NATURE IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, AND
WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BETTER THIS AFTERNOON BY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE MCS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY, MAINLY CARRYING A WIND THREAT GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT POTENTIAL DESPITE MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE ABSENCE
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT A FEW STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE MCS AS IT MOVES INTO NE TX GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL MAINTENANCE.
THIS EVENING WILL BE TRICKY, MAINLY GIVEN THE LINGERING MID
LEVEL INDUCED ENERGY FROM THE MCS AS WELL AS THE WEAK TROUGH
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW MOVING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE A LOSS IN DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING, IT APPEARS THERE COULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT MID
SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE HIGHER
RES GUIDANCE IS NOT EXACTLY ON BOARD WITH THIS THINKING, EXCEPT
THE NAM, THE NBM IS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
GIVEN ENOUGH METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE
TRICKY PRECIP FORECAST, IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70S AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS.
MUCH OF THE SAME APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HEATING AS DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDES ITS ADDITIONAL
INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LARGELY BE ABSENT, THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM CARRYING MOSTLY A WIND THREAT. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE LARGELY SIMILAR TO THAT OF SUNDAY, WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS ALSO PERSISTING.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
ON MONDAY AND DECREASING PVA IN TANDEM WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A QUIETER OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. THERE WILL BE
NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH THE SLOW EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SO
LOOK FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS; WARM AND MUGGY, TO REMAIN IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT.
KOVACIK
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE DEPARTURE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE OFF TO A DRY
START, WITH SKIES ATTEMPTING TO SCATTER OUT FROM NW TO SE. WHILE
THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE, IT WILL
NOT QUITE BE IN THE BEST POSITION TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE RAIN
CHANCES. PROVIDED THE CONTINUED WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE LOWER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS REMAINS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES, AS THESE AREAS WILL BE FURTHEST FROM
THE RIDGE INFLUENCE AND MORE PRONE TO NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE FROM SOUTHERN LA, RESPECTIVELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN THAT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LARGELY
ENDING CONVECTION. CONTINUED WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL CARRY INTO
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUE TO THINK
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WITH ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT TRIES TO
MAKES ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THAT SAID, BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE RIDGE COULD RETROGRADE ENOUGH TO OPEN TO THE LOCAL
AREA TO EITHER A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN OR A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN. WITH THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND/OR SFC WAVE RESULTANT FROM THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OK SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS
POINT IN TIME, WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE OK AND
PORTIONS OF SW AR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN WITH SOUTHERN PROPAGATION.
WEAK NW FLOW UNFORTUNATELY ATTEMPTS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONVECTIVE/PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, PRIOR CONVECTION, ETC. RIGHT NOW, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN NO
CHANGE IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WILL SEE HOW THAT TRENDS IN THE
COMING DAYS AND THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
LOOK TO VERIFY, WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WOULD DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, LEAVING US WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION THAT COULD BE HAMPERED BY SINKING AIR FROM THE RIDGE.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
FOR 16/06Z TAF PERIOD, MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH A MIXTURE OF LOW
CIGS THROUGH 16/12Z AND VCTS/TSRA AT 16/12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP, AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 75 92 77 / 60 10 10 0
MLU 88 73 92 75 / 70 30 30 0
DEQ 86 70 91 73 / 30 0 0 0
TXK 87 74 93 75 / 50 10 0 0
ELD 86 70 91 72 / 70 20 20 0
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 30 0 0 0
GGG 87 73 91 74 / 50 10 0 0
LFK 90 73 92 75 / 40 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...16
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