947
FXUS64 KSHV 160917
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE H500
TROUGH HAS DRIFTED SE INTO WRN AR/E TX, COINCIDING WITH THE MOSAIC
RADAR LOOP DEPICTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND
WCNTRL AR, WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR AND N OF A MCV
SPINNING JUST S OF LFK. PW'S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH RANGE FROM 1.6-2+
INCHES, WITH H925-700 THETA-E RIDGING CONTRIBUTING TO SUBTLE
FORCING, AND INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, AND
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME
ERN TX INTO N LA/SRN AR. NOT REALLY TRUSTING THE VARIOUS HRRR RUNS
AS THESE HAVE BEEN CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY ALMOST HOURLY SINCE
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE 00Z HREF QUITE WET, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS, ISOLATED STRONG WINDS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING, WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
NBM TEMPS TODAY WITH READINGS LIKELY THE COOLEST THEY WILL BE FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH HOTTER 90+ DEGREE READINGS RETURNING
TUESDAY ONCE THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS ABLE TO DRIFT FARTHER SE OFF
THE TX COAST INTO SW/CNTRL LA THROUGH MS.
AS IS THE CASE THIS MORNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER ECNTRL LA, WHERE NBM POPS WERE BUMPED UP
TO MID CHANCE OVER THIS AREA. EVEN AS THE TROUGH SLIPS SE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GREATER HEATING
RESULTS IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE STILL MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT DRIFTING ESE IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH'S DEPARTURE, HOTTER TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION, WITH
LIMITED MIXING OF DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES CLIMBING
TO 100-105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR PROLONGED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, ESPECIALLY AS ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ISOLATED. /15/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
AS THE PERSISTENT WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE
AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NEXT
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING E THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS, REINFORCING A WEAK SFC FRONT ESE THROUGH OK AND THE
OZARKS/NRN AR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO
INDUCE A MODEST SWRLY LLJ ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY,
CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED DEEP LYR SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM W AND NW TX INTO CNTRL/NE
OK. WHILE AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER DEEP E
TX/CNTRL AND NE LA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHEAR AXIS, OUR FOCUS
WILL TURN TO OUR NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT TROUGH SHIFTS ESE INTO SE OK/EXTREME NE TX/SW AR. THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND AREA OF GREATER FORCING CONTINUES TO SLIP
E AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS SUCH, THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS INCLUDED
A LARGE MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH ADEQUATE FORCING AND INSTABILITY PERSISTING LONG
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AFFECTING
AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
WHILE THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIP WELL E OF THE REGION
THURSDAY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LINGERING SHEAR AXIS WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. PENDING THE
PLACEMENT FOR ANY LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CONVECTION, ENHANCEMENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY, WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING, WITH LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AS IT
BUILDS E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS, MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AREAWIDE FOR LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH LIMITED MIXING OF DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN
PERHAPS THE ONSET OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS HEAT INDICES NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA/SW AR. HOWEVER, THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A RESIDUAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE SHEAR AXIS PERSISTING FROM W AND
CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL LA WHICH COULD FOCUS SOME LIMITED RELIEF IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
DEEP E TX AND N LA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING E OF THE REGION
OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY SATURDAY, A DEEPER SERLY MEAN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A TRADITIONAL SUMMER SEABREEZE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THUS,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-20.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
FOR 16/06Z TAF PERIOD, MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH A MIXTURE OF LOW
CIGS THROUGH 16/12Z AND VCTS/TSRA AT 16/12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP, AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 74 94 77 / 60 30 10 0
MLU 87 73 92 75 / 70 40 30 0
DEQ 85 71 92 73 / 30 10 10 0
TXK 88 74 94 76 / 50 10 10 0
ELD 85 71 92 73 / 70 30 20 0
TYR 89 75 92 77 / 30 10 0 0
GGG 88 74 92 76 / 50 10 0 0
LFK 90 74 93 75 / 50 20 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16
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