438
FXUS64 KSHV 161938
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
238 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX TODAY WILL NUDGE ITS WAY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TAKING OUR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH IT. GIVEN THE EXISTING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POSITION,
COVERAGE AND TIMING, ELECTED TO BUILD IN CHC POPS FURTHER WEST
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE STORM CHANCES FOR
OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. IF
THE TROUGH, AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS, AMPLIFIES SOUTH AND
WEST ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY, IT MAY AID IN THE CONTINUATION AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONVECTION DOES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
OUTFLOW KICKING UP GUSTY WINDS.
MEANWHILE, THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL
KEEP OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRONOUNCED SURFACE LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD AND THOROUGHLY MUGGY OVERNIGHT, AS LOWS AIM FOR THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL SEE A FEW
UPPER 80S EAST, BUT HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX, FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
/26/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED AROUND A HIGH OFF OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE PREVENTED FROM FURTHER EASTWARD
APPROACH WEDNESDAY BY A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING EAST FROM
THE FRONT RANGE AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER,
THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX IS OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATER PROBABILITIES OF
IMPACTS BEING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN
LARGELY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THEY TRACK EAST AND OUT OF
THE REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S TROUGH, THE DOOR WILL BE
OPENED FOR THE RIDGE WHICH HAS REMAINED JUST TO OUR WEST THUSFAR
TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE WEEK, CUTTING OFF
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS, BUT ALSO TURNING UP THE HEAT. AS
WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LONG RANGE
DEW POINT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE AN UNPLEASANTLY
MUGGY HEAT, WITH HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF
ADVISORIES. SENSITIVE GROUPS AND/OR THEIR CARETAKERS WOULD BE WELL
ADVISED TO PLAN TO LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE AND TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS AS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE MUGGY CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z ON A NEAR DAILY BASIS. COVERAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
SUGGESTS ENTRY INTO A TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTHEAST
OF OUR AREA, ONLY POSING A VCTS RISK TO KMLU AND KLFK IMMEDIATELY.
BUT SEVERAL OTHER SPOTS COULD SEE SOME VCTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS DAYTIME HEATING SETS OFF CONVECTION. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATER
THIS EVENING, LEAVING VFR CEILINGS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY. BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE
IMPACTS SHORT-LIVED.
THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE. THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AS DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP, AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 93 77 94 / 50 10 0 10
MLU 72 91 74 92 / 60 40 0 20
DEQ 70 91 74 90 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 74 93 76 94 / 10 10 0 10
ELD 70 90 72 92 / 60 30 0 10
TYR 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 73 92 75 91 / 20 0 0 10
LFK 72 93 75 92 / 20 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...57
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