403
FXUS64 KSHV 170249
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS OF OUR FOUR-STATES WITH THE
I-49 CORRIDOR AND EAST SEEING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTION
DURING THE DAY AND NOW WITH SUNSET, THE LAST INTERACTING BOUNDARY
STRETCHES ACROSS NE LA AND BACK TO NEAR SHREVEPORT WITH ANOTHER
POP-UP TO ADD TO THE MIX. THAT BOUNDARY HAS JUST EDGED OUT OF
DESOTO PARISH INTO CADDO AND BOSSIER. MUCH HEAVIER STORMS HAVE
PUSHED EAST OF RUSTON AND NOW RESIDE EAST OF LAKE D'ARBONNE IN
UNION PARISH. OUR SOUNDING SHOWED A LITTLE CAPPING AT 800MB, SO
THATS WHY TX TURNED IN A VERY LOW TO NO COVERAGE DAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND W RIGHT
DOWN TO THE THAT INVERSION. SW FLOW ON A LOW LEVEL JET APPEARANCE
MAY BE HELPING ENERGIZE THESE FEW STORMS WHERE THE SUN CALLED IT
A DAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS AS WILL LIKELY SEE AN UPTICK ON WARMING
WITH LESS RAIN COOLING AND A FEW MID 70S ARE ON THE TABLE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE. PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
USUAL RIVER VALLEYS TO START OUR TUESDAY. SORRY FOR THE ZONE
"UPDATES", BUT I HAD THE EVENING POP GRID STILL PULLING FROM
02-03Z HOUR AT THE 9:30PM TIMESTAMP. THE CORRECT VERSION FOLLOWS
AT 9:34PM FOR THE INTENDED ZONE WORDING AND POINT CLICK INTERESTS
ON OUR WEB SITES. /24/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX TODAY WILL NUDGE ITS WAY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TAKING OUR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH IT. GIVEN THE EXISTING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POSITION,
COVERAGE AND TIMING, ELECTED TO BUILD IN CHC POPS FURTHER WEST
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE STORM CHANCES FOR
OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. IF
THE TROUGH, AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS, AMPLIFIES SOUTH AND
WEST ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY, IT MAY AID IN THE CONTINUATION AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONVECTION DOES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
OUTFLOW KICKING UP GUSTY WINDS.
MEANWHILE, THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL
KEEP OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRONOUNCED SURFACE LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD AND THOROUGHLY MUGGY OVERNIGHT, AS LOWS AIM FOR THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL SEE A FEW
UPPER 80S EAST, BUT HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX, FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
/26/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED AROUND A HIGH OFF OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE PREVENTED FROM FURTHER EASTWARD
APPROACH WEDNESDAY BY A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING EAST FROM
THE FRONT RANGE AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER,
THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX IS OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATER PROBABILITIES OF
IMPACTS BEING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN
LARGELY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THEY TRACK EAST AND OUT OF
THE REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S TROUGH, THE DOOR WILL BE
OPENED FOR THE RIDGE WHICH HAS REMAINED JUST TO OUR WEST THUS FAR
TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE WEEK, CUTTING OFF
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS, BUT ALSO TURNING UP THE HEAT. AS
WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LONG RANGE
DEW POINT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE AN UNPLEASANTLY
MUGGY HEAT, WITH HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF
ADVISORIES. SENSITIVE GROUPS AND/OR THEIR CARETAKERS WOULD BE WELL
ADVISED TO PLAN TO LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE AND TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS AS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE MUGGY CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z ON A NEAR DAILY BASIS. COVERAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
SUGGESTS ENTRY INTO A TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
MUCH CALMER WEATHER WISE ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME ON SUNDAY. DECAYING STORMS CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS AND CANNOT RULE OUT THAT THE SHV
TERMINAL STILL BE UNDER A THREAT FOR SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT FEEL LIKE THE TXK/TYR AND GGG TERMINALS ARE
RELATIVELY CONVECTION FREE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANG ON TO
VCTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT THE SHV/ELD AND MLU TERMINALS AND
WILL MAKE A JUDGMENT CALL AT LFK JUST BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. NOT
SEEING A STRONG RETURN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BUT CANNOT
RULE IT OUT AT THE ELD/MLU AND PERHAPS THE SHV TERMINAL BUT ANY
LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. LEFT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON TERMINALS ON TUE GIVEN HOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THEY
SHOULD BE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP, AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 93 77 94 / 30 10 0 10
MLU 72 91 74 92 / 60 50 0 20
DEQ 70 91 74 90 / 10 10 0 10
TXK 74 93 76 94 / 10 10 0 10
ELD 70 90 72 92 / 40 30 0 10
TYR 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 73 92 75 91 / 10 10 0 10
LFK 72 93 75 92 / 20 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
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