831
FXUS64 KSHV 172227
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
A SCATTERED CU FIELD IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION IS PRESENT JUST NORTH, AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL FA. EXPECTATION IS FOR TOWERING CUMULUS TO EMERGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS HI-RES
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A WEAK
VORTICITY BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK MAY INFLUENCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES VIA OUTFLOW JUST AHEAD OF SUNSET. OVERNIGHT,
CONDITIONS SHOULD GO MOSTLY QUIET, ASIDE FROM MONITORING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE MCS RIDING THE OK/AR STATE LINE. LOCAL CLOUD COVERAGE
ALOFT FROM THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED CIRRUS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE
MORNING, AS ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE MCS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THAT BEING SAID, THIS APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL
BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS AND HI-RES SUPPORT.
WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING EASILY INTO THE LOW AND MID 90'S. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. SUPPORTIVE CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR PARAMETERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, CARRYING OVER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S D2 OUTLOOK,
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY TOMORROW, WHERE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. A SLIGHT RISK IS DRAWN UP JUST NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-20.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG, OR AT LEAST WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY, INTO THURSDAY, ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 90'S. THIS
WILL FOLLOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY THURSDAY EVENING, UPPER RIDGING TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST, GRADUALLY DISPLACING THE
BULK OF THE POPS EAST OF THE FA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER
THE FA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION WILL ALLOW FOR
MAXT'S TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 90'S TO START THE
WEEKEND.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISPLACE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST BY THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHER POPS COMING INTO
FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES OF THE FA HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE 90'S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THOUGH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LOCAL DEW POINTS WILL
STILL BE ELEVATED, ALLOWING FOR LOCAL HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE CURRENT HEAT INDEX VALUES DO NOT WARRANT
FURTHER HEAT PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, SOME COMMUNITIES MAY GET
CLOSE TO THE 105 MARKER LATE THIS WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
MUCH OF OUR AIRSPACE IS CONVECTION FREE FORTUNATELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY MINUS VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUR AREA TERMINALS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TIGHTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY
AND THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SSW TO SSE WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED NEAR 6-12KTS AREAWIDE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD RESULT IN THE RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS WITH THIS COULD COVER SCATTERING OUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON GENERATED CONVECTION VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ON WED
ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE BUT GIVEN EXPECTED COVERAGE, DID NOT MENTION
THIS PROBABILITY WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 77 93 / 0 10 20 40
MLU 75 93 75 93 / 20 10 20 50
DEQ 74 90 71 89 / 0 20 50 20
TXK 76 94 74 92 / 0 10 40 30
ELD 73 93 71 91 / 10 10 30 50
TYR 76 92 74 91 / 0 10 20 20
GGG 75 92 74 91 / 0 10 20 30
LFK 75 93 74 93 / 0 20 10 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13
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