754
FXUS64 KSHV 181142
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
ALL IS QUIET FOR THE TIME BEING THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN
WATCHING THE ONGOING WEAKENING MCS SHIFTING SSE INTO SE OK, WHICH
SHOULD REACH NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK BETWEEN 10-11Z. WHILE THIS
CONVECTION IS MOVING AWAY FROM AN AREA OF GREATER LARGE SCALE
FORCING NEAR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE OK, 2-4+ MB PRESSURE
RISES (PER THE OK MESONET) BEHIND THE MCS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
ITS SWD MOMENTUM TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK, BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN FURTHER AS DEEP LYR SHEAR WEAKENS S OF THE RIVER. IN ANY
CASE, THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY MAY EVENTUALLY LAY UP LATER THIS
MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR, AND COULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
DAYTIME HEAT/RESULTANT INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CAN'T RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BNDRY, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WEAKER WIND PROFILES SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA
IN VC OF THE RESIDUAL WEAKNESS OF A SHEAR AXIS THAT LINGERS OVER S
LA INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DID PLAY PERSISTENCE WITH MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE S
WINDS HAVE KEPT UP MIXING SUCH THAT 08Z TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
SOME 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO, AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS THROUGH THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SRN AND ERN OK ALONG A WEAK SFC FRONT (ONCE
THE EXISTING WORKED OVER AIR MASS IS ABLE TO MODIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AND DESTABILIZE), WITH THE FRONT REMAINING PROGGED TO STALL
NEAR OR N OF THE RED RIVER. THERE IS QUITE OF RANGE IN SOLUTIONS
AMONGST THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH THE HREF MORE BULLISH WITH CONVECTION OVER
NE TX/SW AR THAN THE EVER CHANGING HRRR AND 00Z NAM/GFS. GIVEN THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE REGION
TONIGHT, HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER SE OK/NRN
SECTIONS OF SW AR WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT MAY ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS AS IT SLIPS SLOWLY SSE. WITH THE
TROUGH'S WEAKNESS SLIDING SE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY DURING PEAK
HEATING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MORE OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH ANY RESEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
WASHED OUT. AGAIN, WILL PLAY PERSISTENCE WITH MAX TEMPS THURSDAY,
WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES BOTH TODAY
AND THURSDAY.
15
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGINS TO SLIDE E AND AMPLIFY FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY, WITH ANY
CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE SRN ZONES WHERE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT MAY LINGER WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
WILL RESULT IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH AVAILABLE MIXING THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE
PERIOD, HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SW AR/N LA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS THAT
MIXING OF DEWPOINTS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
DEPICTED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTER WILL SHIFT E INTO THE TN/OK VALLIES AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY, WITH A DEEP SERLY MEAN FLOW RESULTING IN THE
SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY EXPAND FARTHER N TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONGST THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BY THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME THAT THE
RIDGE MAY EXPAND BACK W INTO THE OZARKS, THUS RESULTING IN A MORE
ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THUS MINIMIZING THE SEABREEZE TO JUST THE SRN
ZONES INTO SE TX/S LA. BUT IT'S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAN ANY
WEAKNESSES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY STILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MORE OF THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (AND BEYOND).
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
FOR THE 18/12Z TAF UPDATE, BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
AFTER 18/16Z WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS.
VCTS/-TSRA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AIRSPACE BY
18/18Z-19/03Z. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 30 10
MLU 93 75 93 75 / 20 20 40 20
DEQ 90 71 89 72 / 30 50 20 0
TXK 94 75 93 75 / 20 30 30 10
ELD 93 73 91 73 / 20 30 40 10
TYR 93 76 93 75 / 10 10 20 0
GGG 93 76 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
LFK 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16
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