456
FXUS64 KSHV 181733
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK, WITH THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT
BEING TO THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS.
CURRENT MRMS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING MCS ACROSS OK, WITH
THE LEADING EDGE MOVING INTO SE OK. ESLEWHERE, A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP, MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. IN GENERAL,
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY NORTH
OF I-20 WHERE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE PLACE TO SUPPORT BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION.
KOVACIK
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
ALL IS QUIET FOR THE TIME BEING THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN
WATCHING THE ONGOING WEAKENING MCS SHIFTING SSE INTO SE OK, WHICH
SHOULD REACH NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK BETWEEN 10-11Z. WHILE THIS
CONVECTION IS MOVING AWAY FROM AN AREA OF GREATER LARGE SCALE
FORCING NEAR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE OK, 2-4+ MB PRESSURE
RISES (PER THE OK MESONET) BEHIND THE MCS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
ITS SWD MOMENTUM TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK, BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN FURTHER AS DEEP LYR SHEAR WEAKENS S OF THE RIVER. IN ANY
CASE, THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY MAY EVENTUALLY LAY UP LATER THIS
MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR, AND COULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
DAYTIME HEAT/RESULTANT INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CAN'T RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BNDRY, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WEAKER WIND PROFILES SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA
IN VC OF THE RESIDUAL WEAKNESS OF A SHEAR AXIS THAT LINGERS OVER S
LA INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DID PLAY PERSISTENCE WITH MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE S
WINDS HAVE KEPT UP MIXING SUCH THAT 08Z TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
SOME 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO, AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS THROUGH THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SRN AND ERN OK ALONG A WEAK SFC FRONT (ONCE
THE EXISTING WORKED OVER AIR MASS IS ABLE TO MODIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AND DESTABILIZE), WITH THE FRONT REMAINING PROGGED TO STALL
NEAR OR N OF THE RED RIVER. THERE IS QUITE OF RANGE IN SOLUTIONS
AMONGST THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH THE HREF MORE BULLISH WITH CONVECTION OVER
NE TX/SW AR THAN THE EVER CHANGING HRRR AND 00Z NAM/GFS. GIVEN THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE REGION
TONIGHT, HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER SE OK/NRN
SECTIONS OF SW AR WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT MAY ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS AS IT SLIPS SLOWLY SSE. WITH THE
TROUGH'S WEAKNESS SLIDING SE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY DURING PEAK
HEATING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MORE OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH ANY RESEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
WASHED OUT. AGAIN, WILL PLAY PERSISTENCE WITH MAX TEMPS THURSDAY,
WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES BOTH TODAY
AND THURSDAY.
15
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGINS TO SLIDE E AND AMPLIFY FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY, WITH ANY
CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE SRN ZONES WHERE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT MAY LINGER WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
WILL RESULT IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH AVAILABLE MIXING THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE
PERIOD, HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SW AR/N LA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS THAT
MIXING OF DEWPOINTS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
DEPICTED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTER WILL SHIFT E INTO THE TN/OK VALLIES AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY, WITH A DEEP SERLY MEAN FLOW RESULTING IN THE
SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY EXPAND FARTHER N TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONGST THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BY THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME THAT THE
RIDGE MAY EXPAND BACK W INTO THE OZARKS, THUS RESULTING IN A MORE
ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THUS MINIMIZING THE SEABREEZE TO JUST THE SRN
ZONES INTO SE TX/S LA. BUT IT'S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAN ANY
WEAKNESSES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY STILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MORE OF THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (AND BEYOND).
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
FOR THE 18/18Z TAFS, A WIDESPREAD LOWER VFR CU FIELD DOMINATES
AREA AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASING OVC MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPREADING ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A MORE ORGANIZED PUSH OF INSTABILITY.
SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, AND MAY PRESENT BRIEF IMPACTS TO AREA
TERMINALS. PREVAILING VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. LATER
THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AIRSPACE, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5
KTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 94 77 96 / 30 30 10 10
MLU 75 93 75 95 / 20 40 20 20
DEQ 71 89 72 93 / 50 20 0 10
TXK 75 93 75 97 / 30 30 10 10
ELD 73 91 73 94 / 30 40 10 10
TYR 76 93 75 93 / 20 20 0 0
GGG 76 92 75 93 / 20 20 10 10
LFK 75 93 75 95 / 10 40 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26
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