656
FXUS64 KSHV 190708
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
208 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT MAINLY
INCLUDED CLEANING UP SOME POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THEN
BLENDED IN THE REST OF THE ELEMENTS WITH SOME OBS. OTHERWISE,
THINGS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SO I HAVE LEFT POPS IN THERE FOR THAT. /33/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US, WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED, NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN US. ALSO NOTED IS A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS THIS
MORNING OVER OK/AR.
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, WHICH IS LIKELY
VERY NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST MENTIONED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LARGELY SINGLE-CALL IN NATURE AND WILL MAINLY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
THAT SAID, THERE DOES EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL AS MLCAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN
2000-3000J/KG, DCAPE VALUES LIE AROUND 1000 J/KG, AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7C/KM. JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY, THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE PRIMED FOR A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGE BETWEEN 7-7.5 C/KM. WHILE A FEW STORMS
COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT BEFORE SUNSET AND BECOME
SEVERE, COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
TONIGHT, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION SUCH THAT
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK NW FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT IN TERMS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET
ANOTHER MCS ACROSS OK AND/OR AR. GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE AS WELL AS THE FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT, HAVE LEANED TOWARDS DEPICTING A FORECAST THAT
INCLUDES ANOTHER MCS. THE MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS AR AND
MOVE S/SE. IT MAY CARRY AND WIND THREAT WITH IT, BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT IS WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.
ON THURSDAY, THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE E/SE
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MOVING S/SE AS COOL FRONT. CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH ON THE FRONT'S SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT. OUTSIDE
OF THIS POTENTIAL, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION MAY CREEP IN.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER WARM NIGHT.
KOVACIK
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE MAIN FEATURE TO DISCUSS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RATHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS, IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL
BRING WITH IT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE LOCAL AREA, AND A
GENERALLY DRIER FORECAST PERIOD.
STARTING ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INCHING UP A DEGREE OR TWO
INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S, WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO
105 RANGE. RIGHT NOW, HEAT HEADLINES DO NOT APPEAR NECESSARY, BUT
IF TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER, THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION, HOWEVER,
GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING,
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SINGLE CELL THUNDERSTORMS OR
POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SAME PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE RIDGE ARGUABLY
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS SHOULD HOLD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORECAST IMPLICATIONS WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE INTRUSION OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION SOUTH AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ELSEWHERE.
WPC CLUSTER SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW SOME RIDGE AMPLIFICATION INTO
SUNDAY. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY RESULT IN A
PERSISTENCE BASED FORECAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. IN FACT,
A PERSISTENCE BASED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
REMAINING RELENTLESS ACROSS THE AREA.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
FOR THE 19/06Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, CONTINUING UNTIL 19/15Z BEFORE A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED VCTS PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER
19/14Z AND 19/21Z-20-02Z. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO
CALM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 77 95 77 / 10 10 10 0
MLU 93 75 94 76 / 20 20 20 0
DEQ 90 72 93 73 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 93 76 95 76 / 20 0 10 0
ELD 91 72 94 74 / 30 10 20 0
TYR 93 76 93 75 / 10 0 10 0
GGG 92 75 93 74 / 10 0 10 0
LFK 94 75 94 74 / 10 0 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...16
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