916  
FXUS64 KSHV 040557  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1257 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE  
ARKLATEX THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
EXPECTED.  
 
- HEAT WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT  
INDICES POSSIBLY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS, POSING A POTENTIAL  
HAZARD FOR EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.  
 
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE  
INTO NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A BROAD  
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT HEADING INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER  
SPLIT ON TIMING AND COVERAGE, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A  
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD THROUGH  
THE DAY TODAY. THE 02Z HRRR SUGGESTS AND EARLY START TO CONVECTION,  
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH EAST TEXAS DURING THE MORNING AND  
DISPERSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z 3KM  
NAM, BY CONTRAST, KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH  
AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS  
DETECTABLE ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES. COMPARED TO THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, THIS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS OF A MORE ISOLATED  
NATURE. ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERPERFORMANCE, INCREASED  
THE COVERAGE OF POPS THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. MAXT'S FOR THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WEST,  
WHERE LONGER PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER EARLY WILL DELAY WARMING, AND  
MIDDLE 90S EAST, WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTERNOON, IF  
AT ALL.  
 
ULTIMATELY, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE  
ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE  
IN SOME STORMS. AS OF THIS WRITING, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED, BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.  
FRIDAY'S CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING, MAKING FOR  
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY LOOKS TO FIND QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING, WITH THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS DEFINED MUCH OF OUR PATTERN THIS WEEK  
WEAKENING AND LOSING DEFINITION AS IT SLIDES EAST, AND A NEW CLOSED  
HIGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN THE ABSENCE OF  
FORECASTED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED COOLING CLOUD COVER, DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND UPWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE SITES  
TRENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL TREND TOWARDS THE  
TRIPLE DIGITS, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN  
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE GROUPS SUCH AS  
YOUNG CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY.  
 
SUNDAY WILL SEE CONVECTION RETURNING, AND NBM POP GUIDANCE CONTINUES  
TO HINT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR ON TWO FRONTS: FIRST, A WAVE OF STORMS  
SWINGING OUT OF OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY AND CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN  
ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, SOON JOINED BY  
ADVANCING STORMS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND  
DEEP EAST TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, COMING TO AN END  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A SIMILAR PATTERN LOOKS IN STORE FOR MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES  
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BORDERS. THUS THE ARKLATEX LOOKS  
TO RETURN- IF BRIEFLY- TO OUR CLASSIC SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH NOTICEABLE COVERAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN  
AND EASTERN ZONES, GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL  
STRENGTHEN INTO NEXT WEEK AND EXTEND ITS REACH TO OUR EAST TEXAS  
ZONES. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM  
IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX BY MID NEXT WEEK, STEERED ON NORTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CLOSED HIGH IN THE LATEST GFS  
RUN, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO THE CLASSIC AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE  
PATTERN BY THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUATION OF THE WEEKEND'S WARMING  
TREND, WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S APPEARING IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT.  
 
/26/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
FOR THE 04/06Z TAF UPDATE, MARGINAL VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AIRSPACE-WIDE IN THE WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM  
YESTERDAY. AFTER SUNRISE AND MIXING TO VFR BY 04/13Z, MORE VCTS  
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM 04/15Z-05/00Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. /16/  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 93 76 97 77 / 30 10 0 0  
MLU 95 74 97 75 / 30 10 10 0  
DEQ 88 71 93 72 / 40 10 10 0  
TXK 93 74 97 75 / 30 10 0 0  
ELD 93 72 95 73 / 30 10 10 0  
TYR 89 74 93 74 / 30 10 0 0  
GGG 88 73 95 73 / 30 10 0 0  
LFK 90 74 95 73 / 20 10 10 0  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...26  
AVIATION...16  
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