927
FXUS64 KSHV 041646
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- HEAT WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES POSSIBLY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS, POSING A POTENTIAL
HAZARD FOR EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TX/LA STATE LINE,
WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND BEING NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE
WEAK SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS
THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE SHOWERS ARE EXTREMELY WEAK. LIKE THE
TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON STORMS, THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH EAST TEXAS LIKELY BEING THE LAST TO DRY
UP. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE LOOKING TO STAY DRY ENOUGH AFTER THE
SHOWERS DIE FOR FIREWORK SHOWS TO CONTINUE AS PLANNED.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS STAYED IN PLACE OVERHEAD IN RECENT
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. BUT THE INTENSIFYING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL REPLACE THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE IN PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE, WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND FOR THE ARK-LA-TX.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
WHICH WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 100+. SEVERAL AREAS
WILL BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE IN PLAY DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OUT WEST LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO LARGELY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-49. THIS MAY CHANGE
LATER IN THE WEEK, AS MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RIDING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH PARTS OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF "IF"S IN THAT SCENARIO THAT WOULD
NEED TO BE IN PLACE TO BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL HAVE TO DO FOR THE TIME BEING. /57/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
FOR THE 04/12Z TAF UPDATE, MARGINAL MVFR CONTINUES AIRSPACE-WIDE
IN THE WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY. SOME VCSH/-SHRA WILL
CONTINUE NEAR KTXK. AFTER SUNRISE AND MIXING TO VFR BY 04/14Z,
MORE VCTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM 04/15Z-05/00Z WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 97 77 97 / 10 0 0 20
MLU 74 97 75 98 / 10 10 0 20
DEQ 71 93 72 94 / 10 10 0 20
TXK 74 97 75 98 / 10 0 0 10
ELD 72 95 73 97 / 10 10 0 20
TYR 74 93 74 94 / 10 0 0 10
GGG 73 95 73 95 / 10 0 0 10
LFK 74 95 73 97 / 10 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page