899  
FXUS64 KSHV 051130  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
- TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, WHILE THE REGION  
SEES A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
- DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL RESUME SUNDAY, GENERALLY  
KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AS  
A SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.  
 
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,  
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING HOURS, TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LONE BREAK FROM THIS  
PATTERN. THE ARKLATEX WILL BE FREED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER  
LEVEL FORCING AND STEERING MECHANISMS, WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO, AND A CLOSED  
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF  
THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK HIGH OVER THE OZARKS WILL  
ASSIST IN KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF  
RAINFALL AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM  
TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S AREAWIDE, WITH SEVERAL SITES  
STARTING TO AIM FOR THE UPPER 90S, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND  
MUGGY NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 70S.  
 
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE STUBBORN HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL  
ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY NORTH AND EAST ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE UPPER LEVEL  
STEERING AS FAR EAST AS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT REGIONS OF THE  
ARKLATEX. INTRODUCING THIS MECHANISM TO OUR VERY WARM ENVIRONMENT  
RICH WITH MOISTURE SPELLS THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON A DAILY  
BASIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSISTENT WITH THE  
PROJECTED STEERING ALOFT, THE POPS SUPPLIED BY MODEL GUIDANCE  
INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN, EASTERN  
AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, WITH THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF TEXAS REMAINING  
COMPARABLY DRY. IT'S WORTH NOTING AT THIS POINT THAT SUBTLE CHANGES  
IN THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE  
IMPACTS ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT THE SURFACE. IN A NUTSHELL,  
HOWEVER, THE ARKLATEX LOOKS TO BE CONTINUING WITH THE CLASSIC  
SUMMERTIME ROUTINE OF DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FUELED  
BY DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE APPEARS NEAR MIDWEEK, WHEN THE  
DESERT HIGH LOOKS TO RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW AN UPPER  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE OZARKS. WHAT IMPACTS THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE ARKLATEX ARE STILL HAZY AT THIS POINT,  
REPRESENTED PRIMARILY BY RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES  
EARLY WEDNESDAY, EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND  
RETREATING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY,  
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION  
PATTERN.  
 
HIGHS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE WARM BUT LESS EXTREME THAN RECENT  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED, WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 90S. AT THIS TIME, LONG  
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MORE  
UPPER 90S RETURNING TO THE MAXT GRIDS.  
 
/26/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
FOR THE 06/12Z TAF UPDATE, SOME ISOLATED MVFR LOW CIGS ARE  
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS TERMINALS UNTIL 06/15Z BEFORE CLEARING. VFR  
VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. /16/  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 96 78 96 77 / 0 0 20 10  
MLU 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 20 10  
DEQ 94 72 93 71 / 0 0 20 10  
TXK 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 10 10  
ELD 95 74 95 72 / 0 10 20 10  
TYR 93 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 10  
GGG 94 73 95 73 / 0 0 10 10  
LFK 94 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 10  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...26  
AVIATION...16  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab OK Page
Main Text Page