899
FXUS64 KSHV 051130
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
- TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, WHILE THE REGION
SEES A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL RESUME SUNDAY, GENERALLY
KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AS
A SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LONE BREAK FROM THIS
PATTERN. THE ARKLATEX WILL BE FREED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND STEERING MECHANISMS, WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO, AND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF
THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK HIGH OVER THE OZARKS WILL
ASSIST IN KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF
RAINFALL AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM
TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S AREAWIDE, WITH SEVERAL SITES
STARTING TO AIM FOR THE UPPER 90S, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 70S.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE STUBBORN HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY NORTH AND EAST ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE UPPER LEVEL
STEERING AS FAR EAST AS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT REGIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX. INTRODUCING THIS MECHANISM TO OUR VERY WARM ENVIRONMENT
RICH WITH MOISTURE SPELLS THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON A DAILY
BASIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSISTENT WITH THE
PROJECTED STEERING ALOFT, THE POPS SUPPLIED BY MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN, EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, WITH THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF TEXAS REMAINING
COMPARABLY DRY. IT'S WORTH NOTING AT THIS POINT THAT SUBTLE CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACTS ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT THE SURFACE. IN A NUTSHELL,
HOWEVER, THE ARKLATEX LOOKS TO BE CONTINUING WITH THE CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME ROUTINE OF DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FUELED
BY DAYTIME HEATING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE APPEARS NEAR MIDWEEK, WHEN THE
DESERT HIGH LOOKS TO RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE OZARKS. WHAT IMPACTS THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE ARKLATEX ARE STILL HAZY AT THIS POINT,
REPRESENTED PRIMARILY BY RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY WEDNESDAY, EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
RETREATING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
PATTERN.
HIGHS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE WARM BUT LESS EXTREME THAN RECENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED, WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 90S. AT THIS TIME, LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MORE
UPPER 90S RETURNING TO THE MAXT GRIDS.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FOR THE 06/12Z TAF UPDATE, SOME ISOLATED MVFR LOW CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS TERMINALS UNTIL 06/15Z BEFORE CLEARING. VFR
VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 78 96 77 / 0 0 20 10
MLU 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 20 10
DEQ 94 72 93 71 / 0 0 20 10
TXK 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 10 10
ELD 95 74 95 72 / 0 10 20 10
TYR 93 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 94 73 95 73 / 0 0 10 10
LFK 94 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16
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