427
FXUS64 KSHV 051651
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
- TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, WHILE THE REGION
SEES A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL RESUME SUNDAY, GENERALLY
KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AS
A SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TODAY WILL BE THE ONLY REAL BREAK IN RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS THE SEASONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTS UP AGAIN
SUNDAY. BUT TONIGHT IS LOOKING TO STAY DRY WITH THE HELP OF THE
EXITING RIDGE AND THE INCOMING INFLUENCE OF THE STATIONARY AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE PLENTY HUMID
OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 70S.
THE STRENGTHENING DESERT HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAIN AT BAY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. BUT
THIS WILL LEAVE OUR NORTHEASTERN, EASTERN, AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
OPEN TO MORE SUMMER AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ASSISTED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
IN THE GULF THAT WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDED HEAT.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL HEATING TREND, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
MORE QUESTION MARKS BECOME APPARENT AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NBM IS PICKING UP ON MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE ARK-LA-TX, EVEN THOUGH MOST CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO BELOW 45%.
THERE COULD BE A FEW DIFFERENT FACTORS TO CONSIDER: ONE IS THAT
THE HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ITS CENTER
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PULL BACK THE REGION
OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THAT WAS KEEPING PARTS OF EAST TEXAS DRY
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND ALLOW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SECOND POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A
GREATER FORCING MECHANISM. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DESERT HIGH PULLING BACK, THIS TROUGH WOULD
HAVE THE ABILITY TO DIP FURTHER SOUTH AND PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR A LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM. THIS IS ASSUMING, OF COURSE, THAT THE
PROPER ADVECTION IS IN PLACE TO STEER THIS SHORTWAVE. WITH THE
POPS BEING RELATIVELY LIMITED FOR WEDNESDAY, I AM LEANING TOWARD
THE FIRST SCENARIO BEING THE MOST LIKELY, BUT THAT CAN ALWAYS
CHANGE WITH NEW DATA.
DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS ON WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN THAT WAS IN PLACE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME UNTIL THE WEEKEND:
WARM WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF I-49. ESTIMATED
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
BEFORE, BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 90S. /57/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FOR THE 06/12Z TAF UPDATE, SOME ISOLATED MVFR LOW CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS TERMINALS UNTIL 06/15Z BEFORE CLEARING. VFR
VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 96 77 96 / 0 20 10 30
MLU 75 97 75 96 / 0 20 10 30
DEQ 72 93 71 93 / 0 20 10 30
TXK 75 97 75 97 / 0 10 10 30
ELD 74 95 72 95 / 10 20 10 40
TYR 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 20
GGG 73 95 73 95 / 0 10 10 20
LFK 73 95 73 95 / 10 10 10 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16
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