073  
FXUS64 KSHV 051723  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
- TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, WHILE THE REGION  
SEES A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
- DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL RESUME SUNDAY, GENERALLY  
KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AS  
A SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.  
 
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,  
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
TODAY WILL BE THE ONLY REAL BREAK IN RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE  
FUTURE AS THE SEASONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTS UP AGAIN  
SUNDAY. BUT TONIGHT IS LOOKING TO STAY DRY WITH THE HELP OF THE  
EXITING RIDGE AND THE INCOMING INFLUENCE OF THE STATIONARY AREA OF  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE PLENTY HUMID  
OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 70S.  
 
THE STRENGTHENING DESERT HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH PARTS OF EAST  
TEXAS, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAIN AT BAY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. BUT  
THIS WILL LEAVE OUR NORTHEASTERN, EASTERN, AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES  
OPEN TO MORE SUMMER AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ASSISTED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF  
IN THE GULF THAT WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDED HEAT.  
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL HEATING TREND, WITH  
TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK REACHING THE MID TO  
UPPER 90S.  
 
MORE QUESTION MARKS BECOME APPARENT AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. THE NBM IS PICKING UP ON MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS  
THE ARK-LA-TX, EVEN THOUGH MOST CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO BELOW 45%.  
THERE COULD BE A FEW DIFFERENT FACTORS TO CONSIDER: ONE IS THAT  
THE HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ITS CENTER  
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PULL BACK THE REGION  
OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THAT WAS KEEPING PARTS OF EAST TEXAS DRY  
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND ALLOW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  
THE SECOND POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A  
GREATER FORCING MECHANISM. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING AN UPPER-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS THROUGH THE DAY ON  
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DESERT HIGH PULLING BACK, THIS TROUGH WOULD  
HAVE THE ABILITY TO DIP FURTHER SOUTH AND PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING  
FOR A LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM. THIS IS ASSUMING, OF COURSE, THAT THE  
PROPER ADVECTION IS IN PLACE TO STEER THIS SHORTWAVE. WITH THE  
POPS BEING RELATIVELY LIMITED FOR WEDNESDAY, I AM LEANING TOWARD  
THE FIRST SCENARIO BEING THE MOST LIKELY, BUT THAT CAN ALWAYS  
CHANGE WITH NEW DATA.  
 
DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS ON WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN THAT WAS IN PLACE  
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME UNTIL THE WEEKEND:  
WARM WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF I-49. ESTIMATED  
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN  
BEFORE, BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 90S. /57/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 06/18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS  
TODAY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS TO BECOME  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /05/  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 77 96 76 95 / 0 10 10 30  
MLU 76 97 74 96 / 0 20 10 40  
DEQ 72 93 71 93 / 0 10 0 20  
TXK 76 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 20  
ELD 74 96 72 93 / 10 20 10 40  
TYR 73 93 74 93 / 10 10 0 10  
GGG 73 94 74 93 / 0 10 0 20  
LFK 72 95 74 93 / 10 10 0 30  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...57  
AVIATION...05  
 
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