680  
FXUS64 KSHV 061146  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
646 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK BACK UP TODAY,  
GENERALLY KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, BEGINNING A RINSE  
AND REPEAT PATTERN WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
- STORMS MAY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE  
WEEK AS A TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD.  
 
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,  
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
WHILE THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND HAS REMAINED MOSTLY DRY ACROSS  
THE ARKLATEX, SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND STORMS. POPS SUPPLIED BY MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SPOTTY, REFLECTING  
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION, BUT GIVEN THE  
PROPENSITY FOR OUTFLOW-DRIVEN FURTHER CONVECTION, ELECTED TO  
INCREASE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL  
QUICKLY CLIMB FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO  
MIDDLE 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS SLOW TO  
DEVELOP OR ARRIVE, READINGS APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S MAY BE  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT SITES SOUTH AND EAST.  
 
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE  
ATTEMPTING TO ENCLOSE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN  
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LOSE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, THEN  
ORGANIZE AGAIN. THE POSITIONING OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FROM  
DAY TO DAY WILL BE VERY CONSEQUENTIAL TO OUR FORECAST, AS THE  
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE'S INFLUENCE WILL EITHER INHIBIT  
OR ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION, DEPENDING ON ITS  
REACH, AND POSSIBLY PERMIT THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE  
FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.  
 
AS IT STANDS NOW, SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID  
EVENING, MAKING FOR A QUIET MUGGY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD  
POP UP STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN WILL  
ESSENTIALLY CONTINUE, WITH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWING A  
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN POPS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, AS MODELS PICK  
UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE  
EXACT SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS IS STILL VERY  
VARIABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE, AND WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY IN  
FORTHCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES.  
 
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE PATTERN WHICH IS DEFINING MUCH OF  
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, SPECIFICALLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON A DAILY BASIS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST  
OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. HIGHS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL STILL BE WARM BUT  
LESS EXTREME THAN RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED, WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE  
90S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE OF THE SAME THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEK, WITH A BIT OF A WARMING TREND POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A  
FEW UPPER 90S RETURNING TO THE MAXT GRIDS, WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE  
70S THROUGHOUT.  
 
/26/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
FOR THE 06/12Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
END OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. /16/  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 96 76 95 76 / 20 10 30 10  
MLU 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 10  
DEQ 93 71 93 71 / 10 10 30 10  
TXK 97 74 96 74 / 20 10 30 10  
ELD 95 73 95 72 / 20 20 40 10  
TYR 93 73 93 74 / 10 0 20 0  
GGG 94 73 94 74 / 10 0 30 10  
LFK 95 73 93 73 / 10 10 40 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...26  
AVIATION...16  
 
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