826
FXUS64 KSHV 061627
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1127 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK BACK UP TODAY,
GENERALLY KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, BEGINNING A RINSE
AND REPEAT PATTERN WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STORMS MAY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK: HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 70S ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES OFF.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID
90S ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY THAT WILL MAKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. I WILL STILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY HEAT PRODUCTS, AS CURRENT ESTIMATES HAVE US JUST
SHY OF CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND HELP
KEEP AREAS OF EAST TEXAS DRY TOMORROW. RECENT RUNS OF THE NBM
HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, BEGINNING ON TUESDAY INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING
TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL OPEN EAST TEXAS TO MORE OF THE DIURNAL
AND SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS THAT OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE ALSO HAD THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
PREVIOUSLY WAS CENTERED OVER IA/MO MOVING FURTHER SOUTH ON
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND KEEP RAIN CONTINUING
FOR OUR NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD DEPEND, HOWEVER ON THE HIGH PRESSURE
OUT WEST TO RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH FOR THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE ARK-LA-TX TO SEE ANY IMPACTS. AS SUCH, THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS UP IN THE AIR DEPENDING ON HOW UPPER-LEVEL
FORCINGS BEHAVE.
THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO THE PREVIOUSLY DEFINED NORMAL, WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING AREAS EAST OF I-49. THE WESTERN
HIGH SEEMS TO REINTENSIFY BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PREVENT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR REGION GENERALLY WEST OF
RUSTON, LA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK SEEM TO
BE FAVORING THE MID-UPPER 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. /57/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
FOR THE 06/12Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 95 76 94 / 10 30 10 40
MLU 74 96 74 95 / 20 40 10 40
DEQ 71 93 71 91 / 10 30 10 40
TXK 74 96 74 94 / 10 30 10 40
ELD 73 95 72 93 / 20 40 10 40
TYR 73 93 74 93 / 0 20 0 30
GGG 73 94 74 93 / 0 30 10 40
LFK 73 93 73 94 / 10 40 10 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16
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